September under El Nino shadow, IMD warning raises concern

The Meteorological Department forecasts below-average rainfall for September, which could impact the overall monsoon season. This follows an August recorded as the hottest in 125 years.

With the onset of the final stretch of the monsoon, anxieties surrounding weather patterns have intensified. While September typically brings abundant rainfall every year, the entire season has remained heavily overshadowed by El Nino. Fresh warnings issued by the India Meteorological Department regarding this month have heightened tensions among the public and the agricultural sector.

According to the India Meteorological Department, rainfall across the country in September is expected to remain below average, and the entire monsoon cycle is projected to conclude on a dry note. Looking at August, the total nationwide rainfall recorded last month stood at 213.3 mm. This figure is 16.3% lower than the normal average.

It was not just the deficient rainfall that marked the month, as August also emerged as the hottest in 125 years of recorded history. The average minimum temperature during the month settled at 24.36 degrees Celsius, marking the highest and warmest figure since 1901. Meanwhile, the overall average temperature for the entire month reached 28.01 degrees Celsius, making it the hottest in these years of recorded data.

According to the weather department, the scarcity of rain in August drove temperatures significantly higher. Now, predictions indicate that the monsoon is likely to remain weak through September as well. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a forecast for below-average rainfall across the country for September. As this is the final month of the monsoon season, this projection is a cause for concern and its impacts will ripple across the entire year.

Rainfall in September could remain roughly 9 percent below normal levels. Data from the IMD indicates that driven by the impact of El Nino, total rainfall across the country from June to August was recorded at 14 percent below normal. If rainfall remains depressed in September as well, the cumulative seasonal deficit will widen further, directly translating into pressures ranging from agricultural crop yields to inflation.

Meteorologists estimate that several parts of the country are likely to experience below-normal precipitation during September. However, certain pockets in the northwest, northeast, eastern, east-central, and south-peninsular regions of India might witness normal to above-normal rainfall.

This year's monsoon has proven to be highly erratic and uneven. Driven by El Nino effects, rainfall in June plummeted by up to 35 percent. Conditions improved slightly in July with normal rainfall, but by the end of August, the cumulative seasonal deficit had widened back to 14 percent. Out of the 741 districts across the nation, 312 districts, translating to 42 percent, experienced below-normal rainfall, while 38 districts recorded severe deficiencies.

Subdued rainfall in September could significantly ramp up pressure on farming activities. While sowing for most Kharif crops has nearly concluded, the total sown area this time around is roughly 2 percent lower compared to the previous year. In the absence of adequate rainfall, farmers may be forced to incur higher expenditures on irrigation, or face increased production costs if irrigation remains unavailable.

The IMD notes that strong El Nino conditions currently prevail over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Surface temperatures of the sea remain higher than normal. El Nino traditionally weakens the monsoon system in India, which is why its lingering effects are expected to suppress rainfall throughout September as well.

During this same period, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions persist across the Indian Ocean, and are expected to hold steady through September. While a positive IOD helps enhance rainfall, a neutral phase offers little to no significant advantage for precipitation.

Key Highlights of Weather Trends
The monsoon remained sluggish throughout August. The weather during the month was warm enough to break a 125-year record, driven primarily by sparse rainfall.

Meteorologists indicate that the monsoon will remain weak during the current month as well. Due to El Nino, the monsoon shows no signs of full activation through September, and temperatures are expected to climb.

According to the IMD, the normal benchmark rainfall for September stands at 167.9 mm. However, multiple regions are expected to record sub-par rainfall, dropping down by about 9 percent. Projections suggest that precipitation may reach only 91 percent of the normal volume.

Considering the cumulative four-month monsoon season from June to August 31, the cumulative rainfall deficit has already reached 13.8%. If September remains dry, this shortfall is bound to expand further.

Forecasts indicate that El Nino will trigger not only reduced rainfall in September, but also push average maximum temperatures above normal across most parts of the country. Average minimum temperatures are similarly expected to stay elevated, paving the way for hot conditions and drought-like environments. Due to deficient rainfall, winters are also likely to experience a delayed arrival this season.

What this means for you
The sobering forecasts and data from the weather department carry direct implications for daily life, agricultural output, and inflation across the country.

• Across India: Deficient rainfall and expected dry conditions in September could hurt agricultural yields, potentially triggering spikes in food prices due to stress on Kharif crops.
• On Farmers: Farmers situated in regions with weakened monsoon showers will face heavier financial burdens as they resort to expensive private irrigation to save their crops, raising overall production costs.
• On Consumers: Rising farming outlays and reduced harvest volumes may translate into higher retail prices for essential commodities, tightening household budgets in the coming months.
• On Temperatures and Winters: Sustained high temperatures through September will prolong humid heatwaves and likely push back the onset of the winter season.
• On Water Resources: With numerous districts already recording rainfall deficits, groundwater levels and reservoir storage capacities face mounting pressure.

Questions & Answers

1. What is the meteorological department's rainfall forecast for September?
According to the weather department, rainfall in September is expected to remain below average, dropping by about 9 percent from normal levels.

2. How did temperatures behave during the month of August?
August was recorded as the hottest month in 125 years of history, with the average minimum temperature settling at 24.36 degrees Celsius.

3. What was the total rainfall deficit across the country from June to August?
Driven by El Nino effects, total nationwide rainfall from June to August was recorded at 14 percent below normal.

4. How many districts experienced below-normal rainfall?
Out of the 741 districts across the country, 312 districts or 42 percent recorded below-normal precipitation.

5. What impact could this weather pattern have on agriculture?
Deficient rainfall may force farmers to spend more on irrigation to save Kharif crops, thereby increasing overall production costs.

6. What conditions currently prevail in the equatorial Pacific Ocean?
Strong El Nino conditions persist in the equatorial Pacific Ocean with sea surface temperatures remaining higher than normal.

https://trendkia.com/en/bihar/september-under-el-nino-shadow-imd-warning-raises-concern-25510
TrendKia — Har trend, sabse pehle.