New US House Bill Aims to Ban Lawmakers from Betting on Prediction Markets

House Administration Committee Chairman Bryan Steil has introduced legislation to stop members of Congress and their families from wagering on government actions and election outcomes.

Cracking Down on Congressional Wagering
A senior House Republican introduced legislation on Thursday that would effectively bar members of Congress, their spouses, and their dependent children from participating in prediction markets tied to legislative actions, government decisions, or election results. The move aims to prevent elected officials from capitalizing on sensitive information before it reaches the public.

The Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act
Rep. Bryan Steil, who chairs the House Administration Committee, introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act to ensure elected officials do not profit from insider information. According to TrendKia, Chairman Steil stated that the American public deserves assurance that their representatives are not using privileged access for personal gain. He emphasized that lawmakers should be focused on writing policy rather than betting on its potential outcomes.

Penalties and Enforcement
Under the proposed legislation, violators would face a penalty of $2,000 or 10% of the wagered value, whichever is higher, in addition to forfeiting any profits realized from the bet. The bill stipulates that lawmakers cannot use official office funds, taxpayer allowances, or campaign donations to pay these fines. For those who leave office without settling their penalties, the matter could be referred to the Justice Department for civil enforcement.

Rising Concerns Over Platforms
This bill arrives amidst growing bipartisan unease in Washington regarding officials using platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket to bet on political events, including their own elections. Rep. Bryan Steil has noted his intention to integrate these restrictions with a separate, broader bill that would ban congressional stock trading. While that broader legislation stalled in committee earlier this year, there is continued pressure for a House vote. This follows federal action taken in April by the Senate, which passed a resolution prohibiting its staff and members from utilizing prediction markets, as well as a May inquiry by the House Oversight Committee into potential insider trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.

Legal Precedent and Ongoing Investigations
The push for regulation follows the high-profile arrest of Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke. Gannon Ken Van Dyke was accused of leveraging confidential information to place a series of wagers on Polymarket regarding the January removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, allegedly generating over $400,000 in profits. Gannon Ken Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty to the charges, and his trial is scheduled for December.

What this means for you
Across the US: This legislation would increase the accountability of elected officials and ensure that legislative decisions are made without conflicts of interest regarding personal financial gain.

Questions & Answers

1. What is the primary purpose of this bill?
The bill aims to prevent members of Congress and their families from using non-public information about government decisions or elections to profit through prediction market bets.

2. What are the penalties for violating this law?
Violators would owe $2,000 or 10% of the wager's value, whichever is greater, and would be required to forfeit any profits gained from the bet.

3. Can lawmakers use official funds to pay these fines?
No, lawmakers are strictly prohibited from using official office funds, taxpayer allowances, or campaign donations to cover these penalties.

4. Which platforms are under scrutiny?
The focus is primarily on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, where political events are frequently traded.

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