Bitcoin Holds Firm Above $64,000 as Institutional ETF Inflows and Whale Buying Offset Middle East Tensions Ahead of US NFP

Bitcoin trades stably near $64,100 supported by $754.69M in spot ETF inflows and whale accumulation. Traders eye the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls report and Strait of Hormuz geopolitical risks for the next market move.

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to exhibit market resilience on Friday, maintaining its footing near $64,100 and defending crucial technical support levels following a mild 2.80% retracement in the previous week. Live market data shows the flagship cryptocurrency holding around $64,794, up 0.83% from its previous close of $64,262. While renewed institutional demand and ongoing whale accumulation provide a solid floor for prices, overall market sentiment remains cautious due to escalating geopolitical conflict around the Strait of Hormuz and anticipation surrounding the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) employment report.

Institutional Inflows Resume: US Spot BTC ETFs Log $754.69 Million
Institutional interest in digital assets has shown clear signs of revival this week. According to tracking data from SoSoValue, US-listed spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) accumulated a net inflow of $754.69 million through Thursday. This steady capital influx reflects sustained appetite from traditional financial institutions looking to build long-term positions at current price levels.

In tandem with ETF capital, large-scale crypto investors—commonly known as 'whales'—have actively expanded their holdings throughout the year. On-chain analytical data from CryptoQuant indicates that whale balances (excluding crypto exchanges and mining-pool addresses) hit a cyclical trough of approximately 2.87 million BTC in December 2025. Since then, total whale balances have trended steadily upward, reaching roughly 3.06 million BTC on Wednesday.

Analyst commentary from CryptoQuant highlights that accumulation accelerated noticeably as market prices dipped below $60,000 in June, forming a classic buy-the-dip structure among high-net-worth market participants. Crucially, total whale balances remain below the 2025 bull-cycle peak of 3.23 million BTC, suggesting that institutional and whale entities still possess significant dry powder for further accumulation.

Geopolitical Risk: Strait of Hormuz Tensions Weigh on Market Sentiment
Despite bullish institutional metrics, broader macroeconomic risk appetite remains constrained. Escalating tensions near the Strait of Hormuz have cast doubt on diplomatic negotiations between the US and Iran, generating headwinds across risk-sensitive asset classes, including cryptocurrencies.

While US President Donald Trump stated on Thursday that he anticipated an early end to the military conflict with Iran, real-time security developments indicate persistent geopolitical friction. Iran's semi-official Fars news agency reported that an Iranian parliamentary committee is reviewing a draft bill designed to prohibit vessels originating from the US, Israel, and other designated hostile nations from transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. The legislation proposes punitive fines of up to 20% of a vessel's total cargo valuation for non-compliance, stoking market fears regarding potential disruptions to vital maritime trade corridors.

Compounding these concerns, reports from Saudi defense officials suggest that regional militia groups in Iraq, operating in alignment with Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi forces, may be preparing strikes targeting infrastructure within Saudi Arabia. The threat of a broadened regional dispute has muted global risk appetite and limited Bitcoin's upside momentum.

Macro Watch: US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Fed Rate Cut Outlook
Traders and institutional desks are closely monitoring the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, scheduled for release by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics at 12:30 GMT on Friday. The monthly jobs dataset serves as a primary barometer for US economic health and heavily influences Federal Reserve monetary policy deliberations.

Prior to the NFP release, pricing from the CME FedWatch Tool reflects a 54.7% probability of a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve in September, representing a decline from the 67% probability recorded a week earlier. An unexpectedly robust NFP reading would signal labor market tightest, potentially prompting the Fed to keep interest rates elevated for longer. Such a scenario typically strengthens the US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields while pressuring non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, a weaker-than-projected jobs report could reinforce market expectations for monetary easing, putting downward pressure on yields and providing immediate tailwinds for BTC prices.

Regulatory Update: Digital Asset Market Clarity Act Vote Postponed
On the regulatory front, legislative progress in Washington has encountered a minor delay. The US Senate has deferred its floor vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act until September, according to reporting confirmed by journalist Eleanor Terrett on X following initial coverage by Politico.

US Senate leadership confirmed that the bill will not be brought to the floor prior to the upcoming August Congressional recess. Lawmakers are scheduled to reconvene in Washington around September 14, at which point the legislation may be called for consideration. Navigating the floor vote will require a 60-vote threshold to invoke cloture, representing a critical hurdle for US digital asset regulatory framework legislation.

Technical Analysis: Key Moving Averages and Price Targets
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin continues to defend its primary trendline anchor: the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) located at $63,776. Should buyers maintain price action above the 200-week SMA and secure a weekly candlestick close above immediate Fibonacci resistance at $65,520 (the 78.6% retracement level measured from the August 2024 low of $49,000 to the October 2025 all-time high of $126,199), BTC would open the path toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $78,490.

Weekly momentum oscillators indicate a gradual easing of bearish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending upward toward the neutral 50 threshold with a reading of 39. Simultaneously, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator maintains its bullish crossover established in mid-July, supported by expanding green histogram bars.

On shorter daily timeframes, Bitcoin exhibits a consolidated structure beneath its key exponential moving averages, specifically the 50-day EMA at $64,603, the 100-day EMA at $67,018, and the 200-day EMA at $73,671. Immediate daily horizontal support sits at $64,004 and $63,000. A decisive breakdown below this support belt could see BTC retest its long-term ascending trendline support near $60,000, while a breakout above key overhead resistance between $66,000 and $66,244 on elevated volume would confirm a fresh bullish continuation phase.

What this means for you
For Crypto Investors & Traders:

• Market Volatility: Bitcoin holding above $64,000 offers temporary stability, but upcoming US NFP data and Middle East conflict could trigger sharp short-term price swings.
• Portfolio Strategy: Strong ETF inflows show long-term institutional backing, making sudden price dips around $60,000 strategic accumulation zones for disciplined investors.

Questions & Answers

1. What is Bitcoin's current trading price and key support level?
Bitcoin is trading around $64,100 to $64,794. Its primary weekly support lies at its 200-week SMA of $63,776, with daily horizontal support near $64,004 and $63,000.

2. How much institutional inflow did spot Bitcoin ETFs record recently?
US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $754.69 million in net inflows through Thursday, reflecting renewed institutional demand.

3. How have Bitcoin whale balances changed this year?
According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin whale balances climbed from a low of 2.87 million BTC in December 2025 to approximately 3.06 million BTC on Wednesday.

4. How does the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report impact Bitcoin?
A stronger-than-expected NFP reduces Fed rate cut expectations and boosts the US Dollar, pressuring BTC, while a weaker NFP hurts the Dollar and supports Bitcoin.

5. When is the US Senate expected to vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act?
The US Senate floor vote on the bill has been delayed until lawmakers return from the August recess around September 14.

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