Bitcoin Holds Steady Above $78,000 Despite Hotter US PCE Inflation as SPX6900 and VeChain Rally

Bitcoin has maintained its position above $78,000 despite US July PCE inflation coming in slightly higher than expected at 3.7%. Meanwhile, altcoins like SPX6900 and VeChain recorded double-digit gains amid strong institutional ETF inflows.

The cryptocurrency market continues to demonstrate resilience as Bitcoin holds firmly above the $78,000 mark following last week's impressive 23% rally. Fresh macroeconomic data from the United States showed that the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index expanded slightly faster than economists anticipated. Despite the sticky inflation numbers, crypto assets have largely brushed off rate-hike concerns, with Bitcoin trading around $78,700 and live sessions near $78,833. Altcoins have also captured investor attention, led by double-digit daily advances in SPX6900 and VeChain.

US PCE Inflation Rises to 3.7% as September Rate Hike Expectations Fade
Data released by the US Commerce Department revealed that the July PCE Price Index climbed to 3.7% year-over-year, coming in above Wall Street consensus estimates of 3.6%. The figure remains nearly double the Federal Reserve's official 2% annual inflation target, pointing to persistent price pressures across the American economy. Under standard monetary policy dynamics, higher inflation typically fuels expectations for tighter central bank policy.

However, market participants are pricing in a dovish shift. According to data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate increase at the Federal Reserve's upcoming September meeting has dropped to 38%. This represents a sharp decline from the 55% probability recorded just one month prior. Investors increasingly expect the Fed to remain on hold to support economic growth, creating a favorable liquidity backdrop for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin Technical Structure: Key Resistance at $82,850 and $91,374
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin maintains a clean bullish momentum structure. The benchmark digital asset continues to trade comfortably above its key moving averages, with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) positioned at $68,195 and the 200-day EMA at $72,859. Technical momentum indicators remain elevated; the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is firmly in positive territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 78 (with live technical readings around 81), signaling overbought conditions that warrant close monitoring for temporary pullbacks.

Should buyers maintain control and drive price higher, immediate resistance sits at the 100% Fibonacci retracement level of $82,850, where profit-taking may create short-term consolidation. A decisive breakout above the $82,500 supply zone would open the pathway toward the 127.2% Fibonacci extension target at $91,374.

On the downside, initial technical support is established at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $77,489. A deeper correction would bring the broader demand cluster around the 200-day EMA at $72,859 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $70,325 into play, followed by secondary support near the 50-day EMA at $69,200.

SPX6900 and VeChain Surge as Altcoins Outperform
Beyond Bitcoin, select altcoins have registered powerful bullish breakouts. SPX6900 traded up to $0.6167, extending its upward trajectory after reclaiming territory well above both its 50-day EMA ($0.3822) and 200-day EMA ($0.4066). Its momentum indicators reflect intense buyer interest, with the RSI reaching deep overbought territory near 85. To sustain its rally toward the $1.00 psychological benchmark, SPX6900 must clear resistance at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.7097. A sustained push could eventually test the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $1.3835. Crucial downside support rests within the EMA cluster between $0.4066 and $0.3822.

Simultaneously, VeChain (VET) traded near $0.0064 on Thursday. Despite easing 2% during daytime trading, VET built upon an 18% surge from the preceding session. VeChain faces immediate overhead resistance at its 200-day EMA ($0.00702), which aligns closely with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.00707 (calculated from the $0.00812 to $0.00425 swing). A confirmed breakout above $0.00707 could pave the way for a retest of $0.00812. Technical indicators remain positive, with RSI near 75 and MACD moving into positive territory. Primary downside support lies at the 50% retracement level of $0.00587, followed by the 50-day EMA at $0.00507.

Institutional ETF Inflows, Treasury Buybacks, and Market Liquidation
Institutional capital continues to underpin the broader cryptocurrency rally. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded their seventh consecutive day of net positive capital inflows, drawing in $314 million on Tuesday alone. Concurrently, cryptocurrency whales rotated an estimated $5 billion into tax-deferred swaps, highlighting strategic portfolio realignments among high-net-worth investors.

Macro liquidity received an extra boost after the US Treasury announced a decision to double its national debt buyback operations. This injection of system liquidity triggered one of the largest short-liquidation events in crypto history, ranking 7th overall, as bearish leverage was forced out of the market.

XRP and Hyperliquid Momentum
In other altcoin developments, XRP held above support at $1.40 before rising to trade at $1.43 on Wednesday. Analysts note that XRP faces potential profit-taking pressures as whale accounts distribute tokens into strength following the previous week's expansion.

Meanwhile, Hyperliquid (HYPE) gained 4% on Wednesday, with traders setting sights on a new all-time high above Sunday's peak of $83.30. HYPE-dedicated ETF products saw daily capital inflows accelerate to $7.51 million on Tuesday, up from $5.74 million the day prior, reinforcing strong institutional participation across derivative ecosystems.

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What this means for you
The sustained crypto market rally despite hotter inflation figures carries important practical implications for both domestic and international market participants.

• Across India: Taxation Awareness on Profits: Indian crypto investors holding BTC or altcoins see portfolio recovery, but must account for the 30% flat tax on VDA gains and 1% TDS on transactions when rebalancing.
• Global Markets: Institutional ETF Flows: Continued inflows of $314 million into Bitcoin ETFs signify growing institutional adoption as an inflation-hedging asset class.
• For Traders: Caution Near Overbought Levels: With Bitcoin's RSI reaching 81, traders should anticipate potential short-term pullbacks before opening new leveraged positions.
• Macro Economy: Interest Rate Outlook: Fading expectations of a September Fed rate hike provide liquidity support across risk assets globally.

Questions & Answers

1. Why is Bitcoin holding above $78,000 despite high US inflation?
Bitcoin remains strong because markets expect the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate hikes in September despite July PCE inflation reaching 3.7%.

2. What triggered the rally in SPX6900 and VeChain?
Increased overall crypto market liquidity and strong institutional Bitcoin ETF inflows spilled over into altcoins, boosting SPX6900 and VeChain by double digits.

3. What are the critical resistance levels for Bitcoin now?
Bitcoin faces primary technical resistance at the $82,850 Fibonacci level, with the next extended upside target sitting at $91,374.

4. How much institutional money entered Bitcoin ETFs recently?
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their seventh straight day of inflows, attracting $314 million on Tuesday alongside a $5 billion whale rotation.

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