Pacific Ocean El Nino Weakens Indian Monsoon, Marking Fourth Driest Season Since 2001 India recorded 13 percent below normal rainfall between June and September, driven by strengthening El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific that curbed monsoon activity. Official meteorological statistics for the four-month southwest monsoon across India reveal a sharp shortfall in seasonal precipitation. Between June and September, the country received only 87.4 percent of its Long Period Average rainfall, registering the fourth driest monsoon period observed since 2001. A primary factor driving this extensive seasonal deficit was the emergence of an El Nino pattern across the tropical Pacific Ocean during June, which subsequently gathered strength as the summer progressed. Pacific Warming and Seasonal Rain Projections Atmospheric assessments indicate that the prevailing El Nino remains powerful and is anticipated to persist through March 2027. Cumulative rainfall across India reached 759.4 millimeters during the season, falling short of the typical 868.6 millimeter benchmark. This deficit represents a 13 percent drop below normal levels. Earlier seasonal projections issued on April 13 had estimated rainfall at 92 percent of the Long Period Average, which was later revised on May 29 to 90 percent with a four percent model margin of error. Scientifically, El Nino represents one of three distinct phases within the broader climate phenomenon known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. It exerts a notable warming influence on global temperatures and is historically connected with suppressed monsoon activity across India. Conversely, the alternate La Nina phase typically brings cooling effects, while the system can also rest in a neutral phase. Monthly Breakdown of Seasonal Moisture Rainfall deficits varied drastically across the calendar months. June witnessed the sharpest scarcity of the season, recording a deficit of 35.4 percent. The deficit narrowed somewhat in August to 16.3 percent and eased further to 7.6 percent by September. July stood out as the sole month with above-average precipitation, yielding an increase of one percent above benchmark figures. Low-Pressure Systems Prevented Steeper Deficits Director General of Meteorology Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra stated that the country would have experienced an even steeper shortfall without the intervention of active low-pressure systems. He pointed out that 14 individual low-pressure formations developed throughout the season, remaining functionally active across 77 days compared to the historical normal of 57 days. Monsoon Withdrawal Across Northern and Western Belts The retreating phase of the monsoon has already commenced across multiple territories. According to Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the seasonal weather system has entirely withdrawn from Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and the complete territory of Delhi. Significant tracts within Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat have similarly experienced the withdrawal of monsoon currents. What this means for you A 13 percent deficit in seasonal monsoon rainfall threatens agricultural yields and groundwater replenishment across key agrarian belts. • Across India: Reduced cumulative precipitation directly strains reservoir storage and soil moisture required for winter sowing. This dynamic poses risks of supply crunches and price volatility for staple food commodities. • In Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan: Early monsoon departure rapidly depletes surface moisture in agrarian fields. Farming communities will need to deploy diesel and electric irrigation pumps to sustain ground preparation. • Consumer Budget: Reduced agricultural output threatens to elevate food inflation metrics in domestic markets. Everyday households may face higher grocery expenses during the post-monsoon quarters. • Municipal Water Supplies: Water authorities in regions with below-normal precipitation will likely restrict reservoir allocations ahead of the dry season. Urban populations should prepare for strict local conservation mandates and water management schedules. Why this happened Abnormal surface warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean triggered a powerful El Nino event that disrupted regular atmospheric circulation over the Indian subcontinent. • Pacific Thermal Disruption: The rapid development of El Nino during June suppressed the moisture-bearing trade winds. This atmospheric resistance prevented cloud bands from distributing steady rain over mainland territories. • Severe Early Season Deficit: A steep precipitation shortfall of 35.4 percent in June established an insurmountable backlog for the season. Even normal-plus rainfall in July could not fully offset the steep opening decline. • Moderating Role of Low-Pressure Systems: Atmospheric depressions remained active for 77 days, forming 14 separate low-pressure systems. These transient weather formations prevented an otherwise catastrophic drought from materializing. Questions & Answers 1. What was the total rainfall recorded during this monsoon season? India recorded 759.4 millimeters of rainfall during the season, marking a 13 percent deficit compared to the normal benchmark of 868.6 millimeters. 2. How does the seasonal rainfall compare against the Long Period Average? Rainfall reached 87.4 percent of the Long Period Average, making it the fourth driest monsoon recorded since 2001. 3. What primarily caused the seasonal rainfall deficit? The primary factor was the onset and progressive strengthening of an El Nino pattern over the tropical Pacific Ocean since June. 4. How long is the current El Nino expected to last? Meteorological projections indicate that the current strong El Nino conditions are likely to continue through March 2027. 5. Which month experienced the worst rainfall deficit? June witnessed the highest deficit at 35.4 percent, whereas July was the only month to record positive precipitation at one percent above normal. 6. From which regions has the monsoon completely retreated? The monsoon has completely withdrawn from Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Delhi, alongside portions of Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat. https://trendkia.com/en/madhya-pradesh/pacific-ocean-el-nino-ke-ubhara-se-kamajora-para-manasuna-2001-ke-bada-darja-hui-chauthi-sabase-sukhi-sthiti-40879 TrendKia — Har trend, sabse pehle.