{
  "type": "article",
  "title": "Strengthening El Nino Threatens Indian Monsoon as Seasonal Rainfall Forecast Drops to 85 Percent",
  "summary": "A rapidly strengthening El Nino event in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is dampening India's southwest monsoon. Private forecaster Skymet has lowered its seasonal rainfall estimate to 85 percent of the average, warning of a 70 percent chance of drought conditions.",
  "content": "The intensification of the El Nino atmospheric pattern in the equatorial Pacific Ocean poses a growing threat to the Indian southwest monsoon. Following temporary respite brought by rains during July and early August, the strengthening oceanic phenomenon is expected to depress rainfall levels across significant parts of the country. This shift in climatic conditions threatens to impact agricultural outputs and create water scarcity in vulnerable agricultural belts.\n\nDrastic Reduction in Seasonal Rainfall Forecast\nUpdated rainfall projections released by private weather forecasting agency Skymet Weather indicate a sharp downturn for the overall southwest monsoon season. The agency now expects cumulative seasonal rainfall to reach only 85 percent of the long-period average. With half of August and the entire month of September remaining, the growing impact of El Nino has elevated the probability of drought conditions across the region to 70 percent.\n\nThis revised figure represents a significant drop from Skymet's initial forecast issued in April, which had projected four-month seasonal rainfall at 94 percent of the long-period average. However, shifting global oceanic and atmospheric indicators over recent weeks have necessitated a downward revision as El Nino strengthens faster than previously anticipated.\n\nProjected Deficits for August and September\nMonthly projections highlight further disruptions for the remainder of the monsoon. August rainfall is likely to end with a deficit of 16 percent below the long-period average. Conditions in September appear equally concerning, with rainfall expected to fall 20 percent short of normal levels. Weather analysts attribute this continued suppression of rainfall to the combined effect of a robust El Nino and a weak Indian Ocean Dipole.\n\nOfficial Meteorological Projections and Field Data\nThe official India Meteorological Department had initially projected seasonal monsoon rainfall at 92 percent of the long-period average during its April assessment. In June, the department lowered this figure to 90 percent, citing a 60 percent probability of a deficient monsoon season. The department has not issued an updated full-season forecast since that June announcement.\n\nObserved precipitation figures illustrate the extent of the current deficit. Between June 1 and August 17, the country received 518.7 mm of rainfall compared to the normal average of 596.2 mm for this timeframe. This represents a nationwide cumulative shortfall of 13 percent. The deficit in August has hovered consistently between 11 percent and 13 percent. By comparison, the rainfall shortfall stood at 40 percent at the end of June before recovery during July brought it down to 13 percent. Although flooding has been reported in localized river catchments, large swathes of agricultural land remain exposed to moisture stress as monsoon activity slackens in the latter half of August.\n\nOceanic Conditions Driving the El Nino Event\nExplaining the atmospheric mechanics behind the phenomenon, Jatin Singh, Managing Director of Skymet Weather, stated that strong coupling between oceanic and atmospheric currents in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is accelerating the development of El Nino. He noted that this weather pattern could transition from a strong to a very strong category by early September, further worsening rainfall deficits across India.\n\nWhat this means for you\nAcross India: Potential drought conditions and reduced seasonal rainfall may impact kharif crop yields like paddy, pulses, and oilseeds, potentially pushing up food inflation in the coming months.\n\nIn Agricultural Regions: Depleting groundwater levels and reduced reservoir capacity could increase irrigation costs for farmers and create water stress during the upcoming rabi sowing season.\n\nQuestions & Answers\n\n1. What is Skymet's revised monsoon rainfall forecast for India?\nSkymet Weather has revised its seasonal rainfall forecast down to 85 percent of the long-period average.\n\n2. What is the probability of drought conditions in India this season?\nDue to the strengthening El Nino, weather agency Skymet estimates a 70 percent probability of drought conditions.\n\n3. How much rainfall was recorded in India from June 1 to August 17?\nIndia recorded 518.7 mm of rainfall from June 1 to August 17, compared to the normal average of 596.2 mm, reflecting a 13 percent deficit.\n\n4. What are the rainfall deficit projections for August and September?\nAugust rainfall is expected to be 16 percent below average, while September rainfall could fall 20 percent short of normal levels.\n\n5. What was the last updated forecast issued by the IMD?\nThe India Meteorological Department last updated its forecast in June, projecting seasonal rainfall at 90 percent of the average with a 60 percent probability of deficit.",
  "url": "https://trendkia.com/en/madhya-pradesh/pacific-region-men-el-nino-ke-majabuta-hone-se-india-men-barha-sukhe-ka-khatara-17902",
  "category": "Madhya Pradesh",
  "publishedAt": "2026-08-18",
  "tags": [
    "El Nino",
    "Indian Monsoon",
    "Skymet Weather",
    "IMD",
    "Weather Forecast",
    "Drought Risk",
    "Rainfall Deficit"
  ],
  "language": "en",
  "site": "TrendKia"
}