# AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Weakens below 111.00, remains capped below 100-day SMA > The AUD/JPY cross dropped toward 110.75 during early European trading on Tuesday, weighed down by a persistent bearish RSI momentum and a dense band of technical resistance. **Type:** article · **Category:** Market · **Published:** 2026-09-08 · **Source:** TrendKia **Canonical:** https://trendkia.com/en/market/aud-jpy-men-kamajori-111-00-ke-niche-phisala-aura-100-day-ke-sma-se-niche-simita-29677 · **Language:** English **Tags:** AUD/JPY, Forex, Japanese Yen, Bank of Japan, Technical Analysis, Currency Markets, finance The AUD/JPY currency pair softened during Tuesday's early European session, sliding closer to the 110.75 region as selling pressure continued to dominate the market sentiment. Technical indicators and underlying macroeconomic expectations point toward a capped and cautious near-term outlook for the cross. ## Technical Outlook and Bearish Momentum On the daily chart, the pair remains constrained beneath a dense band of resistance, trading comfortably below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). The Relative Strength Index (14) sitting at 32.65 hovers just above oversold territory, indicating that downside momentum is still very much active even if it is beginning to look stretched. Furthermore, the price action lingering below the lower band of the Bollinger Bands reinforces the prevailing bearish bias in the near term. ## Key Resistance and Support Levels Looking at the upside, the initial barrier emerges at the August 10 low of 111.63. The primary hurdle that buyers must overcome lies in the 113.15-113.25 zone, which houses both the 100-day SMA and the Bollinger midline. Beyond that, the upper Bollinger band near 115.35 acts as a more distant resistance ceiling. On the downside, the psychological 110.00 level serves as the immediate support floor, with further declines potentially targeting the August 3 low of 109.24. ## Bank of Japan Policy Expectations Market attention remains heavily focused on the Bank of Japan, which is widely anticipated to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% during its upcoming policy meeting. Analysts at MUFG noted that recent remarks from policy board member Hajime Takata emphasized the need for the central bank to conduct rate hikes nimbly without being bound by rigid intervals. While Takata later moderated expectations for a massive immediate shift, his comments have emboldened investors to price in a faster pace of monetary tightening. ## Japanese Yen Fundamentals and Safe-Haven Status As one of the world's most heavily traded currencies, the Japanese Yen's valuation is intrinsically tied to Japan's economic performance, bond yield differentials with the United States, and broader market risk sentiment. While the prolonged era of ultra-loose monetary policy previously drove significant depreciation, the gradual unwinding of these measures has started providing renewed foundational support. Additionally, the Yen continues to benefit from its traditional status as a safe-haven asset during periods of global financial stress. ## Broader Market Movements Across Currencies and Commodities In broader Asian trading, AUD/USD held above the 0.7200 mark near multi-month highs as a rallying Japanese Yen offset hawkish Federal Reserve bets. Meanwhile, gold prices managed to snap a two-day losing streak as the US Dollar pulled back from recent highs, though persistent geopolitical uncertainties continued to limit significant upside for non-yielding bullion. In the energy sector, the US diesel crack spread captured attention by surging above $100 per barrel for the first time to reach an intraday record of over $102.00. ## What this means for you The ongoing weakness in the AUD/JPY pair directly impacts currency traders, importers, and investors managing multi-currency portfolios. - **For Forex Traders:** Market participants must closely monitor key technical levels such as the 110.00 support and the 111.63 resistance barrier for potential breakout opportunities. - **Monetary Policy Impact:** Anticipated interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan will continue to alter yield differentials, shifting capital flows across global currency pairs. - **Business and Travel:** Fluctuations in the Japanese Yen directly affect import costs for businesses dealing with Japan and travelers planning trips to the region. - **Risk Management:** Traders should utilize strict stop-loss protocols given the heightened volatility and compressed trading ranges observed in the daily charts. - **Safe-Haven Dynamics:** Shifts in the Yen's valuation serve as a primary indicator of broader macroeconomic risk sentiment across global financial markets. ## Why this happened The downward pressure on the AUD/JPY pair is driven by a combination of strict technical resistance and evolving monetary policy expectations in Japan. - **Technical Resistance:** The currency pair remains capped below the 100-day simple moving average and hugs the lower Bollinger Band, reinforcing strong downside momentum. - **Central Bank Outlook:** Market participants are heavily pricing in a 25 basis point rate hike by the Bank of Japan to 1.25% at its upcoming policy meeting. - **Policy Normalization:** The gradual unwinding of the Bank of Japan's historic ultra-loose monetary policy framework is reshaping long-term currency valuations. - **Yield Differentials:** Narrowing interest rate gaps between global central banks and shifting safe-haven flows continue to dictate cross-currency dynamics. ## Questions & Answers ### 1. What level is the AUD/JPY pair trading near? The AUD/JPY pair is trading near the 110.75 region during the early European session. ### 2. What is the initial support level for AUD/JPY? The initial support level for the currency cross is located at the psychological 110.00 mark. ### 3. What are the expectations for the Bank of Japan's upcoming meeting? The Japanese central bank is widely expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%. ### 4. Where is the primary technical resistance located? The immediate resistance emerges at 111.63, with the key hurdle situated in the 113.15-113.25 zone. --- _TrendKia — Har trend, sabse pehle.. Machine-readable view; canonical HTML at the URL above._