Bears Take the Wheel as EUR/JPY Slides Under Its 100-Day Average, With 183 Now in the Crosshairs

EUR/JPY has slipped below its 100-day SMA to around 183.68 as momentum turns firmly bearish, with traders now watching the 183.00 level and the 200-day SMA sitting just below it.

The bears have firmly grabbed control of EUR/JPY, with the cross sinking from its weekly peak near the 50-day SMA at 185.32 and slicing clean through the 100-day SMA at 184.60. That break only deepened the slide beneath the 184.00 handle, leaving the pair trading around 183.68 in live action, down roughly 0.11% from the previous close of 183.88.

Momentum has flipped toward the sellers
The change in tone is hard to miss. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rolled over to the downside, with live readings near 36, comfortably in bearish territory though not yet oversold. The MACD echoes the same message, sitting at -0.24 against its signal line at -0.05, a setup that keeps the pressure pointed lower.

Where the downside could lead
If sellers manage to drag EUR/JPY under 183.00, the next line of defence is the 200-day SMA at 182.36. A daily close beneath that long-term marker would open the door to the latest cycle low at 180.81, the swing low printed on February 12.

The road higher is blocked by intervention worries
Any rebound looks capped for now, largely because of lingering fears of intervention. To shift the near-term mood, buyers first need to reclaim 184.00, which would put the 100-day SMA back in play, followed by the round 185.00 figure. Above that waits the 50-day SMA, and beyond it the June 17 daily high at 186.32.

How the yen is faring elsewhere
The Japanese Yen is enjoying a firm session against its major peers, with its strongest showing coming against the New Zealand Dollar.

What this means for you
• For currency traders: EUR/JPY dropping below its 100-day SMA and losing the 184.00 handle points to further downside, so keeping a stop-loss in mind on any position is wise.
• For EUR/JPY watchers: Without a close back above 184.00, upside hopes stay weak, while a break under 182.36 could open the path toward 180.81.

Questions & Answers

1. Where is EUR/JPY trading right now?
In live action the pair is around 183.68, down roughly 0.11% from its previous close of 183.88.

2. Is the trend bullish or bearish?
It is bearish. The RSI is near 36 and the MACD sits at -0.24, both leaning in favour of sellers.

3. What are the next key levels on the downside?
First 183.00, then the 200-day SMA at 182.36, and below that the 180.81 swing low from February 12.

4. Where is resistance on the upside?
At 184.00, then the 100-day SMA and 185.00; above that sit the 50-day SMA and the June 17 high at 186.32.

5. Why is upside seen as limited?
Lingering fears of market intervention are seen as capping any meaningful recovery.

6. Which currency was the yen strongest against?
The Japanese Yen showed its strongest performance against the New Zealand Dollar.

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