Bitcoin Powers Past $65K After US–Iran Deal — But the Smart Money Isn't Buying the Rally Bitcoin climbed above $65,000 after a US–Iran deal was announced, yet weak institutional demand and steady ETF outflows have left traders doubtful the bounce will hold. Bitcoin surged to highs above $65,000 after President Trump announced a completed deal with Iran. Even so, investors across the crypto market remain unconvinced that the move signals any lasting turnaround. How far the price moved The largest cryptocurrency is changing hands at $65,860, up 2.2% over the past 24 hours and 4% over the past week, according to CoinGecko data. The rally followed Trump's Truth Social posts on Sunday, in which he claimed to have struck a “Great Deal” with Iran and authorized the “toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz” along with the removal of the U.S. naval blockade. A different feel this time — but still caution Markus Levin, Co-Founder of XYO, told TrendKia that this round of Iran negotiations feels different, since Pakistan's prime minister confirmed the deal independently before Trump's posts even went up. Still, he said, investors are unlikely to fully price in a resolution until the signing in Switzerland takes place on Friday. Levin noted that the relief rally in Bitcoin “has already partially arrived.” The climb from the low $60,000s to around $65,800 has recovered most of the geopolitical risk premium that had built up over recent weeks. Georgii Verbitskii, a derivatives trader and founder of TYMIO, told TrendKia that from a sentiment perspective Bitcoin's recent levels looked significantly oversold. His base case is that most of the negative news is already baked into the price, given that the market has spent months absorbing geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty. Prediction markets stay bearish Despite the upbeat headlines, prediction-market users remain bearish on where Bitcoin goes next. On Myriad — owned by TrendKia's parent company, Dastan — users put a 67% chance on Bitcoin's next major move knocking it down to $55,000. Kalshi users, meanwhile, expect Bitcoin to finish the year at $69,000, which is 45% below its all-time high of $126,080 set in October 2025. The real problem: soft institutional demand The U.S.–Iran deal does nothing to fix Bitcoin's underlying issue of “genuinely soft institutional demand,” Levin said, adding: “A peace deal alone does not bring that capital back.” The skepticism carries weight because the market has repeatedly failed to hold rallies built on good headlines alone. Part of that stems from Trump's repeated insistence that a peace deal was just around the corner — on at least 38 occasions, by various counts. The crypto market is also grappling with structural weakness tied to a lack of institutional demand, capital, and attention rotation, as TrendKia has previously reported. More than $4.8 billion of U.S. capital has left Bitcoin ETF products since May, according to SoSoValue data, underscoring the soft demand. Bitcoin ETFs have shed $2.1 billion in June so far as the selloff deepens. Miner strain and a sharp difficulty drop Galaxy Research tweeted on Sunday that the Bitcoin network logged its 11th-largest downward difficulty adjustment ever — a drop of 10.09% (from 138.96T to 124.93T) at block 953,568, the second-biggest decline of 2026. The firm pointed to Bitcoin's roughly 15% price slide in June as the reason miner margins got squeezed. With hashrate coming offline, the epoch ran 15.6 days against the 14-day target. Options market leans to the downside The options market reinforces the bearish consensus. The 25-delta skew is sitting around negative 4% to 5%, according to GreeksLive data, signaling that investors are still paying a premium for downside protection rather than chasing the upside. A hawkish signal from Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting would likely “put demand and cap any rally from the deal news,” Levin said — reloading demand for puts and capping any move higher driven by the deal. What comes next “If Friday's signing goes cleanly and the Fed does not surprise,” Levin expects a $66,000 to $70,000 target for Bitcoin by the end of the second quarter. For year-end, however, he stays bullish, calling a retest of $100,000 or above “very much on the table.” Verbitskii, by contrast, does not foresee a meaningful drop from current levels without a negative catalyst, noting that the market has grown “increasingly desensitized to headlines related to Iran.” Investors, he said, treat these risks as largely known factors, and he expects Bitcoin to “slowly recover toward the $70,000 range over the coming months.” What this means for you • For investors: The push above $65,000 is driven by geopolitical relief rather than fresh institutional buying — with $4.8 billion having left ETFs since May and demand still soft, the bounce could fade quickly. • For Bitcoin holders: Several traders see a $69,000–$70,000 range by year-end, still well below the October 2025 peak of $126,080, so expect sharp swings in the near term. Questions & Answers 1. Why did Bitcoin suddenly rally? Bitcoin climbed above $65,000 after President Trump announced a “Great Deal” with Iran and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz in Truth Social posts on Sunday. 2. What is Bitcoin's price right now? According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin is trading at $65,860, up 2.2% over 24 hours and 4% over the past week. 3. Why are investors still cautious? Analysts say the deal doesn't fix Bitcoin's soft institutional demand; over $4.8 billion has left ETFs since May, and the market has repeatedly failed to hold rallies on good headlines alone. 4. What's the price outlook for year-end? Kalshi users expect a close near $69,000, while Markus Levin sees a retest of $100,000 or above as very much possible by year-end. https://trendkia.com/en/market/bitakoina-65-000-ke-para-lekina-tredarsa-ko-nahin-bharosa-ki-teji-tikegi-1042 TrendKia — Har trend, sabse pehle.