Can Dalal Street Snap Its Longest Losing Streak in Years as Technical Indicators Hint at a Rebound Indian markets enter a critical trading week after extending their losing streak to six consecutive weeks. While crude oil prices and global headwinds weigh on sentiment, domestic liquidity and oversold technical signals offer hope for support. Domestic equity benchmarks experienced prolonged selling pressure over the past week, stretching their weekly losing run to six consecutive weeks and marking their longest negative stretch since 2020. The Nifty slipped 0.22% over the week to settle at 23,346, despite staging a modest 0.33% bounce during Friday trading, while the BSE Sensex pulled back 0.65% to close at 74,294. A substantial share of the weekly damage occurred during a sharp drop on Tuesday, after which indices attempted a gradual and partial recovery. Global Macro Headwinds and Currency Headwinds International developments continued to exert considerable influence over domestic trading patterns. Market participants closely monitored the outcome of the US FOMC meeting, movements in US Treasury yields, the elevated trajectory of crude oil prices, and escalating friction across West Asia. Adding to the prevailing caution, the Indian rupee weakened for the second consecutive week, diminishing risk appetite and prompting foreign funds to remain on the sidelines. Energy markets played a decisive role in shaping risk sentiment throughout the week. Brent crude hovered near the $103 per barrel threshold, keeping concerns over persistent inflation and sustained elevated borrowing costs front and center. A modest retreat in energy prices toward the end of the week offered brief relief to bond yields. Concurrently, foreign institutional investors extended their selling cycle into a fifth straight week, offloading equities worth Rs 7,619 crore. Domestic institutional investors countered this pressure by deploying Rs 11,232 crore into local shares, preventing deeper declines. Technical Indicators and Key Thresholds for Nifty Although the Nifty marked its sixth straight week of losses, the magnitude of the weekly decline was relatively contained. Chart patterns suggest the index is attempting to establish a stable floor near the lows recorded in June 2026. Momentum gauges also indicate that the benchmark has moved into oversold conditions, with the daily Relative Strength Index beginning to show signs of a nascent upward turn, hinting at the possibility of a near-term technical bounce. Evaluating the index setup, Dr. Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer from Master Capital Services Ltd, noted that the 23,000 to 23,100 zone is positioned to act as direct support. He explained that from current price points, Nifty could rebound toward 24,600, adding that a sustained move above that threshold might catalyze an extended recovery toward its 21-day Exponential Moving Average located near 24,000. However, he warned that market participants should maintain caution because the broader directional trend remains fragile. Tata Group Shares Weigh on Sensex Performance The 30-share Sensex underperformed the broader market, dropping 0.65% to finish at 74,294. The divergence between the two key indices was primarily caused by concentrated selling across Tata Group shares amid an emerging governance dispute, an issue that had a disproportionately larger drag on the Sensex composition relative to the Nifty. While the index stabilized somewhat after Tuesday's heavy selling, sentiment across trading desks remained guarded. In the coming sessions, the trajectory of the Sensex will hinge on international cues, fluctuations in US bond yields, movements in energy commodities, and geopolitical news emerging from West Asia. Bank Nifty Shows Signs of Underlying Resilience The banking barometer, Bank Nifty, shed 0.44% over the week, stretching its negative weekly run to four consecutive weeks. Despite this downward drift, the banking index appears to be constructing a baseline near the 55,600 to 55,700 band, an area that coincides with a key horizontal support level. Selling intensity in lenders appears to have moderated, with the sector exhibiting notable relative strength compared to other segments of the market. Dr. Ravi Singh highlighted that this relative resilience could allow the index to support the wider market and stage a rally toward 57,000, aligning with its 55-day EMA. He recommended a disciplined buy-on-dips strategy as long as the index maintains its recent troughs, while reiterating that traders should remain cautious given the prevailing macro softness across the broader market. Crude Oil Pressures and West Asian Geopolitics Energy commodities remain a pivotal driver for the domestic market outlook in the week ahead. With Brent crude trading close to $103 per barrel, concerns regarding imported inflation and interest-rate trajectories continue to dominate macroeconomic discussions. Although a late-week pullback in petroleum quotes helped yields stabilize, any fresh upward surge could quickly reignite cost pressures for the domestic economy. At the same time, geopolitical friction across West Asia remains an enduring source of uncertainty for financial markets. Any further escalation in the region risks disrupting global logistics and energy supplies, with immediate consequences for inflation prints and global monetary easing timelines. Investors will track developments in the region alongside sovereign bond yields and central bank signals. Domestic Inflows Counter Foreign Capital Outflows The institutional flow data highlighted a sharp contrast between foreign and local asset managers. Foreign institutional investors offloaded Rs 7,619 crore worth of Indian equities, continuing their selling streak for five consecutive weeks. In contrast, domestic institutional investors absorbed the selling by purchasing Rs 11,232 crore worth of shares over the same period. This persistent divergence underscores the crucial role played by domestic liquidity in insulating the market from severe external shocks. Consistent inflows from domestic mutual funds and institutions have provided a vital cushion, allowing indices to absorb heavy foreign outflows and search for stability amid widespread global volatility. What this means for you Six consecutive weeks of market declines combined with crude oil near $103 per barrel directly influence household savings, investment portfolios, and retail costs. • Retail Investors: Ongoing systematic investment plans (SIPs) may see near-term portfolio value compression amid broad market consolidation. However, oversold technical readings suggest that disciplined investors can gradually accumulate quality equities at support zones. • Fuel Costs and Household Budgets: Brent crude hovering near $103 per barrel sustains pressure on domestic inflation and import bills. Any fresh spike in oil prices could increase transportation expenses and affect consumer retail pricing. • Rupee Depreciation Impact: The Indian rupee's back-to-back weekly losses make imported components and goods more expensive. Consumers planning overseas travel or purchasing imported electronics may face elevated costs. • Short-Term Traders: The 23,000 to 23,100 zone on the Nifty is emerging as a critical technical demand area. Traders looking for potential rebounds toward 24,000 or 24,600 should enforce strict risk management rules given broader market softness. Why this happened The extended six-week decline in Indian equities reflects a convergence of global macroeconomic headwinds and isolated domestic corporate developments. Rising bond yields and energy pressures have prompted persistent foreign institutional liquidation. • Elevated Crude Oil Prices: Brent crude trading near $103 per barrel has kept inflation fears alive across emerging markets. For an energy-importing economy, sustained triple-digit oil prices threaten trade balances and limit monetary easing room. • Sustained Foreign Portfolio Outflows: Foreign institutional investors pulled out Rs 7,619 crore during the week, extending net selling to five consecutive weeks. Rising US Treasury yields and pre-FOMC caution encouraged institutional investors to trim risk exposure. • Tata Group Corporate Governance Headwinds: The Sensex bore additional downside pressure due to heavy selling in Tata Group equities following a corporate governance dispute. This specific factor created a visible performance divergence between the Sensex and the Nifty. • Geopolitical Friction and Currency Weakness: Escalating tensions in West Asia added significant geopolitical risk premiums to energy benchmarks. In tandem, the rupee declining for two straight weeks compounded cautious sentiment among global asset allocators. Questions & Answers 1. How did Nifty and Sensex perform over the past trading week? Nifty declined 0.22% to settle at 23,346, while the Sensex retreated 0.65% to close at 74,294 over the weekly period. 2. What are the primary support and resistance levels for Nifty next week? The 23,000 to 23,100 zone serves as immediate critical support, while potential technical rebounds could target 24,000 and 24,600. 3. What is the technical outlook for Bank Nifty? Bank Nifty is stabilizing near its 55,600 to 55,700 support band and could stage a technical rebound toward the 57,000 level. 4. What were the net institutional flows for FIIs and DIIs during the week? Foreign institutional investors offloaded equities worth Rs 7,619 crore, whereas domestic institutional investors purchased shares worth Rs 11,232 crore. 5. Why did the Sensex underperform the Nifty during the week? The Sensex experienced heavier downside pressure due to concentrated selling in Tata Group equities following a governance dispute. 6. How are elevated crude oil prices impacting broader market sentiment? Brent crude trading near $103 per barrel sustains pressure on inflation expectations, currency valuation, and borrowing costs. https://trendkia.com/en/market/chhaha-haphton-ki-lagatara-giravata-ke-bada-kya-snbhalenge-sensex-aura-nifty-ina-bare-snketon-para-rahegi-najara-34055 TrendKia — Har trend, sabse pehle.