# ING Sees Gradual TRY Repricing Supported by Disinflation, Projects Year-End Targets

> ING analysts project the Turkish Lira to reach 52 against the US Dollar by year-end and 63 by the end of 2027, driven by easing inflation and normalizing liquidity. Meanwhile, broader currency markets react to US inflation anticipation and shifting central bank expectations.

**Type:** article · **Category:** Market · **Published:** 2026-09-09 · **Source:** TrendKia
**Canonical:** https://trendkia.com/en/market/turkish-lira-ko-lekara-ing-ka-bara-anumana-sala-ke-anta-taka-itane-para-pahuncha-sakata-hai-bhava-30443 · **Language:** English
**Tags:** Turkish Lira, ING, Central Bank of Turkey, Disinflation, Foreign Reserves, Exchange Rate

ING analysts Muhammet Mercan, Frantisek Taborsky and James Wilson report that normalizing liquidity and a lower effective funding rate have successfully brought market pricing closer to the Central Bank of Turkey policy rate projections for 2026. While foreign capital inflows into Turkish government bonds remain somewhat restrained, the gradual recovery in official reserves is expected to support the currency moving forward.

 

## Central Bank Policy Adjustments and Inflation Outlook

The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye has lowered its effective funding rate from 40% to 37%, citing easing inflation risks, softer domestic demand, and improved monetary transmission mechanisms. Economic growth is currently slowing down, inflation is projected to drop below 30% over the course of the year, and foreign exchange reserves have staged a notable recovery. Building on these conditions, the central bank has resumed asset purchases while financial markets increasingly price in future rate reductions.

 

## Market Skepticism and Foreign Inflows

Despite these adjustments, financial markets remain cautious regarding the central bank's ability to maintain monetary easing into the next year, having priced in only around 100bp of cuts so far. Analysts suggest there is room for further repricing if disinflation persists across the curve. At the same time, foreign investments in Turkish government bonds remain limited, with the Ministry of Finance having already completed approximately two-thirds of this year's issuance schedule. A meaningful enhancement in bond duration would likely necessitate a substantial de-escalation in geopolitical tensions, specifically concerning the US-Iran situation.

 

## Exchange Rate Forecasts and Currency Carry Trade

The ongoing recovery in central bank foreign exchange reserves is expected to sustain investor appetite for the Turkish Lira carry trade. Based on these macroeconomic fundamentals, ING forecasts the USD/TRY exchange rate to settle at 52 by the end of the current year and reach 63 by the end of next year.

 

## Broader Foreign Exchange Market Dynamics

In wider currency trading, AUD/USD is extending its consolidative price action above the 0.7200 threshold during the Asian session, remaining largely uninspired by hot Chinese consumer and producer price index data. Meanwhile, rising Reserve Bank of Australia rate-hike expectations act as a supportive tailwind for the Australian dollar amid Yen-inspired US Dollar weakness. Market participants are now awaiting upcoming US inflation releases later in the week for fresh directional momentum.

 

## USD/JPY Pressures and Gold Market Rebound

The USD/JPY pair remains under downward pressure, marking its third consecutive day of losses and trading near mid-February levels around 153.00. Solid Japanese economic data released earlier in the session reinforced expectations that the Bank of Japan will proceed with normalizing its monetary policy, providing sustained backing for the Yen. Concurrently, gold staged a rebound, snapping a three-day losing streak to reclaim ground above the key $4,400 mark per troy ounce. This precious metal recovery comes amid intensified selling pressure on the US Dollar and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.

## What this means for you
Fluctuations in emerging market currencies and global exchange rates directly influence international trade, investment flows, and commodity pricing.

- **Across India:** Shifts in global currency valuations and macroeconomic trends can indirectly impact import costs, foreign portfolio flows, and broader financial market sentiment.

- **Globally:** Investors, traders, and businesses operating across international borders should monitor central bank policy adjustments and inflation data closely to manage currency exposure and portfolio risk.

## Why this happened
Recent developments in Turkish monetary policy and currency repricing are primarily driven by the central bank's adjustment of funding rates and easing domestic inflation pressures.

- **Easing Inflation:** Slower domestic demand and projections of inflation falling below 30% have provided the central bank with room to lower effective funding rates.

- **Reserve Recovery:** A notable turnaround in official foreign exchange reserves has enabled the central bank to resume asset purchases and stabilize market expectations.

- **Geopolitical Pressures:** Lingering international tensions, such as those involving the US and Iran, continue to restrict foreign inflows and meaningful improvements in bond duration.

## Questions & Answers

### 1. What is ING's year-end exchange rate forecast for USD/TRY?
ING analysts forecast USD/TRY to reach 52 by the end of the current year.

### 2. To what level has the Central Bank of Turkey lowered its effective funding rate?
The central bank lowered its effective funding rate from 40% to 37%.

### 3. What is the projected USD/TRY target for the end of 2027?
Analysts project the USD/TRY exchange rate to reach 63 by the end of 2027.

### 4. How did gold prices perform recently?
Gold rebounded and snapped a three-day losing streak, reclaiming ground above the $4,400 mark per troy ounce.

---
_TrendKia — Har trend, sabse pehle.. Machine-readable view; canonical HTML at the URL above._