Loonie Fights Back as USD/CAD Slides Toward a Pivotal March Floor at 1.3970 USD/CAD has slipped after failing to hold above 1.4130, and Societe Generale now treats the March floor near 1.3970 as the key support that decides whether the decline deepens toward 1.3850 or steadies. The US dollar has loosened its grip on its Canadian counterpart, and the next few sessions could hinge on a single line drawn back in March. After USD/CAD failed to cling to the top of its earlier trading range, Societe Generale sees the pair drifting lower toward 1.3970, a level that may decide whether the recent slide deepens or steadies. Why the pullback started The turning point came when USD/CAD could not hold above 1.4130, the upper edge of its previous broad consolidation band. Once that ceiling gave way, the retreat picked up speed and turned into a deeper pullback rather than a shallow dip. In plain terms, buyers ran out of conviction at the top of the range, and the pair began unwinding the gains that had stacked up during weeks of sideways trade. That is why the focus has now shifted squarely onto the supports sitting below. 1.3970 becomes the line to watch With momentum cooling, the pair is edging toward its 50-day moving average, and the March peak around 1.3970 stands out as the next meaningful cushion. Societe Generale frames this zone as potential support, the kind of level where a falling market often pauses to test whether sellers still have the upper hand. Whether the pair can stay above the 50-DMA is the question that matters most from here, because holding it would keep the broader structure intact. The two roads from here If dip buyers step back in and spark a short-term rebound, the recovery is unlikely to have a clear run. Last week's high at 1.4150/1.4175 is flagged as interim resistance, a ceiling that could cap any bounce before it gathers real momentum. On the other hand, if 1.3970 fails to hold, the door opens to a longer decline toward the May high near 1.3870/1.3850, extending the correction another leg lower. Where the pair sits right now Live market data shows USD/CAD trading around 1.41, up about 0.39% from the previous close near 1.40, and holding inside a 52-week range of 1.35 to 1.42. Momentum readings are neutral rather than stretched, with the 14-day RSI near 48, right at the midpoint. The pair still trades above its longer moving averages, with the EMA50 above the EMA200 in a so-called golden cross, and the ADX near 32 points to a market that is trending rather than drifting. That backdrop lines up with the SocGen view, a pair pulling back within a still-constructive longer-term picture, with 1.3970 as the pivot between resilience and a fresh leg down. The wider market backdrop Away from the loonie, the broader risk mood has been mixed. Ethereum has outmuscled its peers over the past week, posting double-digit gains between last week and Wednesday and outrunning Bitcoin, XRP and Solana, before the wider market rolled over into a correction on Thursday. Even so, several underlying metrics suggest the rally is fragile and its relative strength may not last. Cardano has been quieter, with ADA stalling at $0.165 after a modest rebound the previous week. The spotlight there was the Van Rossem hard fork, activated on Saturday as Cardano's first protocol upgrade approved entirely through onchain governance. It ushered in Protocol Version 11, carrying improvements designed to cut the cost of running smart contracts. On the macro side, cooling inflation added to the picture. The June CPI dropped 0.4% on the month, the steepest one-month fall since April 2020, pulling the annual rate down to 3.5% from May's 4.2% and ending a three-month run of acceleration. Core prices were flat on the month and eased to 2.6% year over year, with both figures coming in under consensus. What this means for you • For forex traders: As long as USD/CAD holds above 1.3970, the pullback looks like a dip within an uptrend; a clean break below opens the way toward 1.3850. • For anyone converting money: A softer US dollar against the loonie means slightly better value when buying Canadian dollars, though the day-to-day swings remain small. Questions & Answers 1. What level is Societe Generale most focused on for USD/CAD? The March peak around 1.3970, which it sees as potential support and the 50-day moving average zone the pair is drifting toward. 2. Why did USD/CAD start falling? It failed to hold above 1.4130, the top of its previous consolidation range, which triggered a deeper pullback. 3. What happens if 1.3970 breaks? The decline could extend toward the May high near 1.3870/1.3850. 4. Where could a rebound stall? Last week's high at 1.4150/1.4175 is flagged as interim resistance for any short-term bounce. 5. Where is USD/CAD trading now? Live data shows it around 1.41, up about 0.39% from the prior close near 1.40, inside a 52-week range of 1.35 to 1.42. https://trendkia.com/en/market/usd-cad-ki-chala-phisali-1-3970-ka-march-vala-saporta-banega-bajara-ki-asali-pariksha-9267 TrendKia — Har trend, sabse pehle.