# Nomura Projects Riksbank Rate Hike in Early 2027 while Expanded US Treasury Buyback Triggers Rally Across Markets > Financial firm Nomura forecasts that Sweden's central bank Riksbank could hike interest rates in early 2027. Meanwhile, the US Treasury's decision to double debt buyback operations has fueled liquidity and sparked rallies in Bitcoin, EUR, and GBP. **Type:** article · **Category:** Market · **Published:** 2026-08-20 · **Source:** TrendKia **Canonical:** https://trendkia.com/en/market/nomura-ke-anusara-2027-ki-shuruata-men-byaja-dara-barha-sakata-hai-riksbank-us-treasury-ki-ghoshana-se-vaishvika-bajaron-men-teji-19080 · **Language:** English **Tags:** Nomura, Riksbank, US Treasury, Bitcoin, Interest Rates, Bond Buyback, Foreign Exchange, Inflation Global financial markets are closely monitoring two major economic developments that are shaping central bank expectations and asset valuations worldwide. On one hand, analysts at Japanese financial group Nomura have released an updated projection indicating that Sweden's central bank, the Riksbank, could implement an interest rate hike in early 2027. On the other hand, a decisive and unscheduled operational shift by the US Treasury Department to double its liquidity support debt buyback program has injected fresh liquidity into international markets. These concurrent shifts are sparking notable volatility across foreign exchange pairs, precious metals, and digital assets. ## Nomura Analysis on Riksbank Rate Path and Inflation Pressures According to Nomura's latest market research note, the Riksbank's policy rate trajectory, which was projected in June data to reach 1.82% in the fourth quarter of 2026, marks an upward revision from the 1.77% level estimated in the March forecast. Looking further ahead, the central bank's projections show the policy benchmark rising to 2.00% by the fourth quarter of 2027. The official guidance issued by Sweden's monetary authority emphasizes that the probability of a rate increase later this year remains present. Even though headline CPIF inflation continues to hover at relatively low levels, recent upside inflation surprises have heightened policymakers' vigilance regarding potential inflationary pressures. Nomura's economics team expects CPIF ex-energy inflation to accelerate at a slightly faster pace than projected in the Riksbank's official baseline forecast. Analysts project that CPIF ex-energy inflation will average 1.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2027 before accelerating sharply to 2.4% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2027. This anticipated pickup is largely driven by statistical base effects stemming from the April 2026 halving of value-added tax (VAT) on food items, which will mechanically push up year-on-year inflation metrics. While Riksbank policymakers typically look through temporary tax adjustments and fiscal distortions, Nomura argues that the prospect of inflation running above target could bolster the rationale for tightening monetary policy, especially if underlying economic growth remains robust. Nevertheless, Nomura maintains its baseline expectation that the Riksbank will keep the policy rate unchanged throughout the remainder of 2026. Given the current low readings in headline inflation, central bank officials are unlikely to be in a rush to withdraw monetary accommodation prematurely. ## US Treasury Expands Debt Buyback Program to Boost Market Liquidity In a significant liquidity move within the US financial system, the US Treasury Department deviated from its tentative published schedule on Wednesday. Issuing an official statement at 12:32 GMT, the department announced that it will at least double the size of its liquidity support buyback operations in key long-term maturity buckets, specifically focusing on the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year bond sectors. Under the revised parameters, the maximum liquidity operation limit will be raised from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion. This enhanced buyback schedule is set to become effective on September 9 and will run continuously through November 4. Market participants view this off-calendar intervention as a strategic effort to enhance structural market depth and cushion long-duration Treasury bonds, an intervention that immediately reverberated across global financial markets. ## Global FX Markets and Commodities React to Softening US Dollar Following the US Treasury's liquidity expansion news, the US Dollar faced renewed downward pressure, allowing major foreign currencies to post solid gains. In European trading on Thursday, the British Pound (GBP/USD) hovered near 1.3650, approaching its highest level recorded since May. The US Dollar slipped as investors evaluated whether the Treasury's enlarged debt buyback plan would serve as a major structural game-changer for sovereign bond yields. Market attention remains focused on upcoming US economic releases and geopolitical developments in the Middle East. Simultaneously, the Euro (EUR/USD) climbed above 1.1700 during the European session, touching its highest exchange rate in three months. The currency pair regained upward momentum as the greenback resumed its broad-based decline following the buyback announcement. Currency traders are now turning their attention toward the release of US Jobless Claims data while continuing to monitor geopolitical risks associated with Iran. In commodities, Gold maintained minor intraday losses, remaining positioned below the $4,500 mark during European trade. Despite the US Dollar sliding toward a three-month trough, gold gains remained capped as traders weighed macroeconomic liquidity against broader market conditions. ## Crypto Rally and Short Squeeze as Bitcoin Approaches $72,000 The US Treasury's expanded debt buybacks generated immediate enthusiasm within the cryptocurrency sector. Bitcoin extended its rally on Thursday, inching toward the $72,000 mark as market sentiment improved significantly across digital asset platforms. The doubling of Treasury buyback operations enhanced broader financial market liquidity, creating a favorable backdrop for risk-on assets. Market analysts noted that the sudden surge in market liquidity triggered a widespread short squeeze across crypto derivatives markets. Traders holding bearish positions were forced to cover rapidly, amplifying upward price momentum. The Treasury's liquidity decision has provided a strong positive catalyst for the crypto ecosystem, propelling Bitcoin closer to critical psychological resistance levels. ## What this means for you **Across India:** Increased US Dollar liquidity in global markets supports risk sentiment, which could stabilize foreign institutional investor (FII) flows into Indian equity markets. **Globally:** The prospective rate hike in Sweden along with US Treasury debt buybacks creates fresh trading dynamics for global investors, crypto traders, and foreign exchange market participants. ## Questions & Answers ### 1. When does Nomura expect the Riksbank to raise interest rates? Nomura forecasts that Sweden's central bank, the Riksbank, could hike its policy interest rate in the first quarter of 2027 (Q1 2027). ### 2. What changes did the US Treasury make to its debt buyback program? The US Treasury announced it will double its liquidity support buyback operations from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation for 10-20 year and 20-30 year bonds, effective September 9 through November 4. ### 3. How did Bitcoin and crypto markets react to the Treasury buyback announcement? The liquidity boost triggered a short squeeze in crypto markets, driving Bitcoin prices upward toward the $72,000 mark. ### 4. How did major currency pairs perform following the US Dollar weakness? EUR/USD reached a three-month high above 1.1700, while GBP/USD traded near 1.3650, approaching its May highs. --- _TrendKia — Har trend, sabse pehle.. Machine-readable view; canonical HTML at the URL above._