{
  "type": "article",
  "title": "Scotiabank Says Canadian Dollar Is Back Near Fair Value as US Dollar's Slide Resumes",
  "summary": "Despite Donald Trump's comments targeting Bombardier jets and currency imbalance, the Canadian dollar remains steady, with Scotiabank pegging USD/CAD close to its 1.3768 fair value estimate.",
  "content": "Heightened trade friction with Washington is having little visible effect on the Canadian dollar for now. Scotiabank's currency strategists say the loonie is trading remarkably close to its underlying economic balance point, even as rhetoric out of the US has sharpened in recent days.\n\nTrump Takes Aim at Bombardier and the Loonie\nDonald Trump has targeted Canada in two separate social media posts recently. In one, he floated the idea of a boycott, or possibly an outright ban, on Bombardier jets. In another, he described the currency imbalance between the Canadian dollar and the US dollar as \"unacceptable.\" It remains unclear whether either post will translate into an actual policy action, and that uncertainty appears to be why markets have largely shrugged off the comments so far.\n\nWhere Scotiabank Pegs Fair Value\nBy Scotiabank's estimation, USD/CAD is currently trading close to its fundamental equilibrium. Spot dipped briefly below the 1.38 level in early Asian trade before rebounding slightly. That overnight low effectively lines up with Scotiabank's current fair value estimate of 1.3768, the lowest reading since early June. In other words, there is little daylight left between where the pair is actually trading and where the bank's models say it should be.\n\nA Short-Term Bounce for the Dollar\nOn the technical side, the US dollar rebounded firmly from its intraday low below 1.38, setting a bullish \"hammer\" signal on the intraday chart. That kind of pattern typically points to renewed short-term buying interest after a bout of selling pressure, and it could offer the dollar some near-term relief. That's why Scotiabank's latest note describes the outlook as \"neutral to bearish\": no dramatic reversal is expected immediately, but upside is seen as limited.\n\nThe Bigger Picture Still Doesn't Favor the Dollar\nZooming out, though, tells a different story. Price action last week suggests the dollar's rebound from its August 21 low of 1.3733 stalled and reversed on Wednesday. That has established firm resistance in the low to mid 1.39 zone. The implication is that the broader downtrend in the US dollar, which began from its mid-year peak, is now resuming, meaning the recent bounce looks like a pause rather than a genuine change in direction.\n\nBearish Momentum Signals Reawaken\nAccording to Scotiabank, dollar-bearish trend momentum was close to stalling out last week, but fresh dollar losses have reinvigorated bearish oscillator signals. Practically, that means even modest dollar gains, up through the mid to upper 1.38s, are likely to start attracting fresh selling interest. Every small bounce, in other words, is likely to be treated by the market as an opportunity to sell rather than a genuine turning point.\n\nLevels to Watch Next\nScotiabank places immediate US dollar support at 1.3715 to 1.3735. A break below that zone opens the door to a decline back toward the 1.3500 to 1.3550 region. On the upside, the low to mid 1.39 area stands as firm resistance that the dollar is currently struggling to clear.\n\nWhat this means for you\nThis news won't move an ordinary reader's daily budget directly, but it matters to anyone trading forex, doing business with Canada, or planning travel or study there.\n\n• For forex traders: USD/CAD support is pegged at 1.3715 to 1.3735, with resistance near 1.39. Anyone taking new positions should weigh entries and exits against these specific levels before trading.\n• For businesses trading with Canada: With the Canadian dollar sitting close to its fair value, near-term exchange-rate volatility looks limited for now, which importers and exporters settling cross-border deals may find reassuring.\n• For travelers and students: Anyone heading to Canada for a trip or studies is less likely to face a sudden, sharp swing in the exchange rate right now, which can make budgeting a little easier.\n• For investors: Scotiabank says the US dollar's broader downtrend is resuming, so anyone holding dollar-denominated assets should treat any short-term bounce as temporary rather than a lasting reversal.\n\nWhy this happened\nThe Canadian dollar's current strength stems from two separate forces converging at once, political rhetoric on one side and the US dollar's own technical weakness on the other.\n\n• Trump's comments: Donald Trump suggested a boycott or ban on Bombardier jets and called the Canadian dollar's imbalance unacceptable, but neither has led to concrete action so far, which is why markets have largely shrugged it off.\n• US dollar's technical weakness: The dollar's rebound from its August 21 low stalled and reversed on Wednesday, reactivating the broader downtrend that has been in place since its mid-year peak.\n• Oscillator signals: Recent dollar losses have reinvigorated bearish technical indicators, raising the odds that renewed selling pressure will greet any small bounce.\n• What could follow: Scotiabank says a break of support at 1.3715/1.3735 could send the dollar sliding further toward the 1.3500/1.3550 region, while resistance near 1.39 remains firm for now.\n\nQuestions & Answers\n\n1. What is the current fair value estimate for the Canadian dollar?\nScotiabank estimates USD/CAD's fair value at 1.3768, the lowest reading since early June.\n\n2. What did Donald Trump say about Canada?\nHe suggested a boycott or ban on Bombardier jets and called the Canadian dollar's imbalance with the US dollar unacceptable.\n\n3. Has any concrete action followed these comments?\nIt remains unclear whether either post will lead to actual policy action.\n\n4. Where did USD/CAD hit its low today?\nIt briefly dipped below 1.38 in early Asian trade before rebounding slightly.\n\n5. Could the US dollar see short-term relief?\nYes, a bullish hammer signal on the intraday chart points to possible near-term relief, though the broader trend still doesn't favor the dollar.\n\n6. What are the key support and resistance levels for the dollar?\nSupport sits at 1.3715 to 1.3735, with a break opening the door to 1.3500/1.3550, while resistance holds in the low to mid 1.39 zone.",
  "url": "https://trendkia.com/en/market/scotiabank-ne-kaha-ameriki-dolara-ki-giravata-phira-shuru-hone-se-kanadai-dolara-uchita-mulya-ke-kariba-pahuncha-29607",
  "category": "Market",
  "publishedAt": "2026-09-08",
  "tags": [
    "Canadian Dollar",
    "USD/CAD",
    "Scotiabank",
    "Donald Trump",
    "Bombardier",
    "Forex",
    "US Dollar"
  ],
  "language": "en",
  "site": "TrendKia"
}