# SpaceX Shares After a Record IPO: Why Wall Street Cannot Agree on Buying Now or Waiting for the Drop

> SpaceX listed on June 12 in the biggest IPO ever and quickly raced past $200, but analysts are deeply split over its sky-high valuation, with several warning that a sharp pullback is likely.

**Type:** article · **Category:** Market · **Published:** 2026-06-17 · **Source:** TrendKia
**Canonical:** https://trendkia.com/en/market/rikorda-ipo-ke-bada-spacex-ka-sheyara-abhi-khariden-ya-giravata-ka-intazara-kare-1549 · **Language:** English
**Tags:** SpaceX IPO, SPCX stock, Elon Musk, valuation, Wall Street analysts, Morningstar, ARK Invest, stock market

Should I buy SpaceX stock? It is one of the most searched questions in investing right now, and the reason is easy to see. SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) went public on June 12 at $135 per share in what stands as the largest IPO in history, and within the first few days of trading the stock was being pushed past $200. Whether to step in at these levels or hold back and wait for a possible drop is exactly what has divided Wall Street so sharply. Price targets run all the way from $63 to $227, and behind that gap sit some serious valuation concerns that are worth understanding before you commit a single dollar.

 

## The Valuation Gap Is the Real Problem

As this is written, SPCX is changing hands around $201, which gives it a market cap of roughly $2.66 trillion against trailing revenue of about $19.3 billion. That math produces a price-to-sales ratio near 115, making it 95% pricier than Palantir, currently the most expensive stock in the entire S&P 500. So the decision to buy today really hinges on one question: can the company grow into a valuation that almost no business in history has ever managed to sustain?

Morningstar ran a full discounted cash flow model and arrived at a fair value of $780 billion, less than half the IPO target. The firm also built three separate scenarios for SpaceX's AI orbital data center business and gave the most optimistic of them just a 7% probability.

In a note published June 3, 2026, Morningstar analysts wrote:

> “We think the company has been significantly overvalued and investors will have opportunities to buy the stock at more attractive levels after the IPO.”

Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens, who led the coverage, put numbers to that gap and spelled out the timing argument as well:

> “We believe the company is significantly overvalued, and investors will have the opportunity to buy in at a more attractive price following the IPO.”
 

## History Points to a Pullback

Look at the 15 largest U.S. IPOs since 2006 and a clear pattern emerges: on average the stock fell 50% at some point during its first year and finished that year 33% below its IPO price. Apply the same template to SpaceX and a $10,000 investment at today's price would be worth around $4,000 at its low point and less than $5,300 by June 2027, if history repeats. Goldman Sachs has added another marker, noting that holding a $1.75 trillion valuation through 2030 would demand annual revenues above $100 billion and compound annual growth of more than 40%. Buy now or wait, then? The data leans heavily toward patience.

 

## Who Holds Control, and Why Forecasts Diverge

Elon Musk owns more than 5.5 billion Class B shares, each one carrying 10 votes, which leaves him in command of roughly 85% of SpaceX's voting power. Retail investors buying into the IPO effectively have no say in how the company is run. Senator Elizabeth Warren, ranking member of the Senate banking committee, raised exactly this point after the listing.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren stated:

> “Trump’s SEC greenlit an IPO with numbers analysts have called ‘nonsensical.’ The world will get its first trillionaire while Americans across the country are scraping together every dollar to save for retirement.”

Five analysts have published 12-month price predictions since the IPO. The consensus sits at $164, roughly 18% below where SPCX trades now. The high is $227, while the low comes from CFRA, which carries a Sell rating and a $63 target. At the bullish extreme is ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, which has projected SpaceX could reach a $2.5 trillion enterprise value by 2030 if Starlink, Starship, and orbital AI all deliver. That spread tells you something important: the market has already priced in the best-case outcome, so anyone buying today is essentially paying for results that have only a 7% chance of arriving.

 

## So, Buy SpaceX Stock or Not?

Most of the analyst data points to the same conclusion: the real issue is not the company's long-run potential but the entry point right now. For most retail investors, the honest answer may simply be not yet, not at these prices. Waiting for the drop that both history and Morningstar seem to expect could turn out to be the smarter move, and the one that leaves more room for error should the orbital AI data centers take longer than 2028 to become reality.

## What this means for you
**What it means for investors:**

- The stock has jumped from a $135 IPO price to about $201, so buying today means entering roughly 18% above the analyst consensus target of $164.
- Based on historical patterns, $10,000 put in at the current price could shrink to about $4,000 at its first-year low, so waiting carries less downside risk than rushing in.

## Questions & Answers

### 1. When and at what price did SpaceX go public?
SpaceX listed on June 12 at $135 per share, described as the largest IPO in history.

### 2. How wide are the analyst price targets?
Targets range from $63 to $227, with a $164 consensus; the low is CFRA's $63 (Sell rating) and the high is $227.

### 3. What fair value did Morningstar calculate?
Morningstar's discounted cash flow model produced a fair value of $780 billion, less than half the IPO target.

### 4. Who controls the company?
Elon Musk holds more than 5.5 billion Class B shares, each with 10 votes, giving him roughly 85% of the voting power.

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