{
  "type": "article",
  "title": "TD Securities Sees Fed Staying Put in September, But Warns Next Move Is More Likely a Hike Than a Cut",
  "summary": "TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect August's CPI reading to come in mild enough to keep the Federal Reserve on hold in September, though they warn any upside inflation surprise could push the central bank toward a hike rather than a cut.",
  "content": "Economists at TD Securities are betting that next month's Consumer Price Index reading for August will look tame enough to let the Federal Reserve leave interest rates untouched at its September meeting, even as they flag a real risk that a hotter-than-expected inflation number could tip the central bank toward raising rates rather than holding them steady.\n\nWhat the CPI-to-PCE math is showing\nThe Federal Reserve leans more heavily on the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, or PCE, than on the CPI when it sets policy. TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir translated their expected August CPI print into that PCE framework to see what it implies for the Fed's preferred gauge. Their conclusion is that if their forecast holds, core PCE inflation would come in at a modest 0.18% month-on-month, while the market-based measure, which strips out harder-to-observe imputed costs, would be even softer at 0.13%. Numbers that low, they argue, would be a welcome sight for the more centrist voices on the Fed's rate-setting committee, the FOMC, particularly Governor Waller and Williams. In TD Securities' view, a reading like that would be enough on its own to keep the Fed on hold in September.\n\nWhy Waller's stance matters so much\nTD Securities specifically called out Fed Governor Waller's position, noting his preference to keep rates on hold for as long as incoming data allow it. That matters because the economists place Waller among the more centrist members of the FOMC, a group whose votes often determine which way a closely balanced committee leans. If the CPI-to-PCE translation genuinely shows contained underlying inflation, it directly reinforces the case that officials like Waller have been making for patience. That is a key reason TD Securities believes the committee will choose to leave rates exactly where they are in September rather than move in either direction.\n\nA stabilized labor market shifts the Fed's focus\nLooking beyond the September meeting, TD Securities said it expects the Fed to remain on hold across its entire forecast horizon. The economists project that inflation will stay elevated for the rest of the year, while the labor market has already stabilized. The Fed operates under a dual mandate, balancing price stability against employment, and a steadier jobs market gives the FOMC room to concentrate on its inflation goal without worrying as much about the labor side of that equation. TD Securities frames this as exactly the dynamic now playing out, which is why the committee's attention is increasingly fixed on where inflation data land in the months ahead.\n\nIf the Fed moves at all, expect a hike, not a cut\nEven with a base case of no change in September, TD Securities was explicit that an upside inflation surprise could still force the Fed's hand. As the economists put it, \"If the Fed were to move this year, we believe that move is more likely to be a hike than a cut.\" That view runs counter to expectations elsewhere in the market that have leaned toward rate cuts, and it signals that if the Fed does eventually depart from its holding pattern, TD Securities expects the next step to be tighter policy rather than a easing move.\n\nWhat this means for you\nThe Federal Reserve's expected stance could ripple through global markets, the dollar's strength, and gold and commodity prices worldwide.\n\n• For stock market investors: A hold in September would be a relief for global markets, but the lingering chance of a hike later this year could keep volatility elevated. Investors should watch upcoming CPI releases closely for signals.\n• For gold buyers: Expectations of steady or rising rates tend to support a stronger dollar, which can weigh on gold prices. Anyone planning to buy gold should track how this inflation data plays out.\n• For currency and forex traders: A tighter Fed stance tends to strengthen the dollar against other currencies, which can pressure emerging-market currencies and raise import costs in countries that rely on dollar-priced goods.\n• For borrowers and companies with dollar debt: If the Fed does eventually hike instead of cut, global borrowing costs could rise, affecting companies and governments that carry dollar-denominated debt.\n\nQuestions & Answers\n\n1. What does TD Securities expect the Fed to do in September?\nTD Securities expects the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged at its September meeting.\n\n2. Who are the economists behind this forecast?\nThe forecast comes from TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir.\n\n3. What core PCE inflation figure are they projecting?\nThey project core PCE at 0.18% month-on-month, with the market-based measure even softer at 0.13%.\n\n4. What is Fed Governor Waller's stance?\nGovernor Waller prefers to keep rates on hold for as long as incoming data allow it.\n\n5. Could the Fed still change rates this year?\nTD Securities says that if the Fed does move this year, a hike is more likely than a cut.\n\n6. How does the labor market factor into this forecast?\nThe labor market has stabilized, which TD Securities says lets the Fed focus more on its inflation mandate.",
  "url": "https://trendkia.com/en/market/td-securities-ka-anumana-sitnbara-men-byaja-daren-nahin-badalega-federal-reserve-lekina-age-katauti-se-jyada-barhotari-ki-ashnka-28933",
  "category": "Market",
  "publishedAt": "2026-09-07",
  "tags": [
    "Federal Reserve",
    "CPI data",
    "TD Securities",
    "interest rates",
    "FOMC",
    "PCE inflation",
    "Governor Waller"
  ],
  "language": "en",
  "site": "TrendKia"
}