Gold Delivers 362% Returns in 15 Years, Projected to Hit Rs 1.71 Lakh by Next Dhanteras Despite slower annual gains during Samvat 2083, long-term precious metal investments remain strong. Market analysts project domestic gold prices could reach Rs 1,71,000 per 10 grams by next Dhanteras. The festive occasion of Dhanteras has traditionally been a focal point for precious metal buying and investment across India. On November 6, 2026, marking the commencement of Samvat 2083, gold and silver recorded their lowest year-on-year gains in four years. However, long-term data underlines the robust wealth creation capability of bullion assets. Despite recent price consolidations, market forecasters expect 24-carat gold to potentially test the Rs 1,71,000 per 10 grams mark by the next Dhanteras festival. Annual Performance of Gold and Silver Data compiled by Kedia Advisory indicates that gold prices appreciated by 15.04% between last year's Dhanteras and the current festival in 2026. This represents a moderation when compared to previous festive cycles, which logged gains of 60.30% in 2025, 33% in 2024, and 18% in 2023. Silver managed to outshine gold over the past one-year stretch, delivering nearly 22% returns. Nonetheless, this was also silver's lowest annual appreciation in three years, following substantial gains of 41% in 2024 and a impressive 59% surge in 2025. 15-Year Long-Term Track Record Over a broader 15-year horizon, gold has consistently generated superior stability compared to silver. Out of the last 15 Dhanteras periods, gold delivered negative returns in only five years (2013 to 2015, 2017, and 2021), keeping positive yearly returns intact across 10 instances. Between 2012 and November 5, 2026, 24-carat gold experienced a 361.74% rally. The price surged from Rs 31,643 per 10 grams in 2012 to Rs 146,109 per 10 grams by November 5, 2026. Silver exhibited higher volatility over the same 15-year timeframe, correcting downwards on six separate Dhanteras occasions. Nevertheless, 999 purity silver advanced by over 213% during these 15 years, moving from Rs 60,920 per 1 kg in 2012 to Rs 190,946 per 1 kg by early November 2026. Target Price of Rs 1.71 Lakh by Next Dhanteras According to an analysis by Axis Direct, domestic gold posted an absolute return of nearly 200% over the five-year period between Dhanteras 2021 and late October 2026. Prices climbed from Rs 47,600 per 10 grams in November 2021 to approximately Rs 1,42,750 per 10 grams prior to Dhanteras 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.53%. With gold undergoing a correction of over 20% from its peak levels, analysts view current price points as a favorable entry opportunity for long-term investors aiming to build positions in a staggered manner. Axis Direct projects that assuming positive macroeconomic triggers unfold, gold could deliver 20% to 25% returns by next Dhanteras, setting target prices in the range of Rs 1,65,000 to Rs 1,71,000 per 10 grams. Four Key Factors Shaping Gold's Trajectory The market trajectory for gold heading into the next festive cycle will depend primarily on four global drivers identified by Axis Direct • Diplomatic Developments between US and Iran: Ongoing diplomatic negotiations aimed at securing a truce between Iran and the United States could ease global supply anxieties and temper inflationary pressures. Reduced inflation could lower bond yields and weaken the US dollar, providing positive momentum to gold prices. • US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy: Elevated interest rates typically raise the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold. While inflation concerns retain expectations of a rate increase in December 2026, potential monetary easing by the Federal Reserve in 2027 could depress treasury yields and the dollar, revitalizing investment demand for bullion. • Central Bank Reserves and ETF Inflows: Global central banks have actively accumulated physical gold since 2022 to diversify reserves away from the US dollar amid sanction risks. Furthermore, global gold ETFs witnessed massive inflows of around $89 billion in 2025 compared to $3.4 billion in 2024. This trend persisted into 2026, recording approximately $39 billion in inflows through September. • Rupee Depreciation and Exchange Rate Dynamics: Because domestic gold requirements are largely fulfilled via imports priced in US dollars, currency movements heavily influence local prices. The Indian Rupee, which opened 2026 around Rs 89.85 against the US dollar, touched a low of Rs 96.83 in May 2026 and trades near Rs 96.73. With the rupee historically depreciating by 3% to 4% annually against the greenback, currency weakness acts as a cushion for domestic gold prices against international market declines. What this means for you The recent price correction in gold and silver offers a favorable entry window for long-term investors and retail buyers looking to accumulate precious metals after Dhanteras. • Across India: With domestic gold correcting more than 20% from its peaks to trade around Rs 1,46,109 per 10 grams, buyers preparing for upcoming wedding seasons can capitalize on lower rates. Staggered purchases in physical gold or Gold ETFs can help average out acquisition costs. • For Investors: Analysts project potential returns of 20% to 25% by next Dhanteras, taking prices towards Rs 1,71,000 per 10 grams. Investors seeking portfolio hedging can use market dips to build long-term positions in bullion assets. Why this happened The blend of lower immediate annual returns and aggressive long-term target projections stems from changing global monetary policies and currency movements. • Recent Pullback and Interest Rates: Elevated policy rates intended to combat global inflation increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals, pushing domestic gold prices down over 20% from peak levels. • Multi-Year Safe Haven Demand: Strong multi-bagger returns of 361.74% over 15 years reflect sustained central bank reserve buying and surging global Gold ETF inflows amid geopolitical uncertainties. • Rupee Weakness and Fed Outlook: A depreciating rupee, currently around Rs 96.73 per dollar, along with anticipated US Fed rate cuts in 2027, is expected to support landed import costs and lift gold towards Rs 1,71,000 per 10 grams. Questions & Answers 1. What return has gold delivered over the last 15 years? Gold has surged by 361.74% in 15 years, rising from Rs 31,643 per 10 grams in 2012 to Rs 146,109 per 10 grams by November 5, 2026. 2. What is the projected price target for gold by next Dhanteras? Analysts at Axis Direct project gold to deliver 20% to 25% returns, targeting a price range of Rs 1,65,000 to Rs 1,71,000 per 10 grams. 3. How did gold and silver perform year-on-year for Dhanteras 2026? Gold yielded 15.04% year-on-year returns, while silver registered nearly 22% returns, representing the lowest annual gains for both in recent years. 4. What has been silver's 15-year return track record? Silver has delivered over 213% returns in 15 years, moving from Rs 60,920 per 1 kg in 2012 to Rs 190,946 per 1 kg by November 5, 2026. https://trendkia.com/en/money/gold-delivers-362-percent-returns-in-15-years-projected-to-hit-1-71-lakh-by-next-dhanteras-57176 TrendKia — Har trend, sabse pehle.