# Monsoon Prepares for Retreat Across Northern and Central Belts While Southern and Northeastern States Brace for Downpours

> Favorable withdrawal conditions are set across 13 states and union territories over the next 48 hours, even as Kerala and northeastern regions face heavy rainfall warnings.

**Type:** article · **Category:** India · **Published:** 2026-10-02 · **Source:** TrendKia
**Canonical:** https://trendkia.com/en/national/uttara-aura-madhya-bharat-ke-kai-hisson-se-vidai-ki-ora-monsoon-purvottara-aura-dakshina-men-teja-bauchharon-ki-snbhavana-41664 · **Language:** English
**Tags:** IMD, Monsoon Withdrawal, Kerala Rains, Delhi Weather, Weather Forecast, Rainfall Deficit

Atmospheric patterns across India are entering a major transitional phase as active rain bands recede from the northern plains and central heartland. The southwest monsoon is rapidly establishing its departure path across several territories, paving the way for drier weather in the northwest. However, while northern regions prepare for seasonal clearing, atmospheric moisture remains concentrated over the southern peninsula and the northeast, where intense precipitation is projected to continue over the coming days. Heavy showers are predicted across parts of the southern peninsula over the next 24 hours, with Kerala anticipated to experience exceptionally heavy falls.

## Conditions Favorable for Monsoon Withdrawal in 13 States Over Next 48 Hours
Meteorological assessments confirm that conditions are supportive for the progressive withdrawal of the southwest monsoon across an extensive regional belt over the next two days. The withdrawal line is poised to travel across Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, the remaining parts of Uttar Pradesh, and Gujarat. The retreat is also set to cover major swathes of Madhya Pradesh alongside the entire expanse of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand. Concurrently, parts of eastern and central India, including Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and select areas of Maharashtra, are on track to witness favorable withdrawal dynamics within this 48-hour window.

## Monsoon Season Closes with 87.4 Percent of Long Period Average Rainfall
Data compiled by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the core June to September window shows that the country received 87.4 percent of its Long Period Average (LPA). While the conventional benchmark for normal seasonal precipitation stands at 868.6 mm, actual pan-India rainfall reached only 759.4 mm. The department highlighted that this seasonal turnout represents the fourth lowest cumulative rainfall volume recorded since 2001. Between 1 June and 30 September, national rainfall levels reflected an overall cumulative deficit of approximately 13 percent against historical averages.

## Forecast Details for Northeastern and Eastern Regions Through Early October
Wet weather patterns will remain active across the northeastern frontier from 2 to 7 October, bringing recurrent rain spells to Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura. Across central and eastern pockets, rain is forecasted between 2 and 3 October in East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, and Bengal. Furthermore, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, and Odisha are likely to encounter thunderstorms, lightning strikes, and gusty winds blowing at 30 to 40 km/h during 2 to 3 October, with peak wind bursts reaching up to 50 km/h in isolated spots.

## Orange Alert in Three Kerala Districts While Delhi Expects Clear Skies
Downpours across parts of Kerala on Thursday delivered much-needed respite from weeks of oppressive heat, though the intensity of incoming weather prompted an orange alert across Pathanamthitta, Kottayam, and Idukki districts. In addition, yellow alerts have been assigned to six neighboring districts across Kerala. In contrast, the national capital of Delhi is set to experience predominantly clear skies. Delhi's daytime maximum temperatures are projected to settle between 33°C and 35°C, while nighttime minimums will range from 21°C to 23°C, remaining slightly below seasonal norms in most areas alongside surface wind speeds touching 20 km/h.

## What this means for you
The simultaneous retreat in the north and intense localized rain in the south will directly influence harvesting schedules, travel safety, and seasonal temperatures.

- **Across Northern and Central India:** The cessation of rainfall across Punjab, Haryana, UP, Bihar, and MP over the next 48 hours will usher in dry conditions. Farmers can capitalize on clear sunlight for late kharif harvesting and rabi crop ground preparation.
- **In Kerala:** Pathanamthitta, Kottayam, and Idukki face severe localized downpours under an orange alert. Commuters should prepare for potential waterlogging, road disruptions, and localized slope stability concerns in hilly corridors.
- **In Northeastern States:** Spells of rain through 7 October across Assam, Meghalaya, and surrounding states could slow transport logistics. Residents should track localized drainage and river conditions during periods of sustained shower activity.
- **In Delhi NCR:** Clear daytime skies paired with winds up to 20 km/h will keep afternoons warm at 33°C to 35°C while nights dip to 21°C to 23°C. Commuters will experience cooler morning temperatures without disruptions from rain.
- **National Water Resources:** A seasonal cumulative deficit of roughly 13 percent with 759.4 mm rainfall points to tighter reservoir balances heading into winter. Agricultural sectors in rain-deficient pockets will need disciplined irrigation planning for winter crops.

## Why this happened
The seasonal transition is driven by the establishment of dry northwesterly winds across northern India alongside persistent localized cyclonic circulations in the south and northeast.

- **Seasonal Synoptic Shift:** Early October brings an increase in atmospheric surface pressure over northwest India, displacing the monsoon trough southward. This transition shuts off Arabian Sea moisture feeding the plains, enabling steady monsoon withdrawal across 13 states.
- **Peninsular Moisture Convergence:** Pockets of cyclonic circulation over the southern peninsula continue pulling moisture from adjoining oceanic waters. This localized convergence triggered sharp rainfall over Kerala, necessitating orange alerts in three districts.
- **Cumulative Seasonal Deficit:** Lower overall monsoon dynamics led to India receiving only 87.4 percent of its Long Period Average between June and September. This marks the fourth lowest seasonal rain tally recorded since 2001, leaving an aggregate shortfall of 13 percent.

## Questions & Answers

### 1. Which states are poised for the southwest monsoon withdrawal over the next 48 hours?
Conditions favor withdrawal across Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and parts of Maharashtra.

### 2. What was the total cumulative rainfall recorded across India during this monsoon season?
The country received 759.4 mm of rainfall against the normal benchmark of 868.6 mm, which is 87.4 percent of the Long Period Average.

### 3. How does this year's seasonal monsoon rainfall compare historically since 2001?
This season recorded the fourth lowest rainfall volume in the country since 2001, finishing with an overall deficit of roughly 13 percent.

### 4. Which districts in Kerala have been placed under an orange alert?
An orange alert has been issued for Pathanamthitta, Kottayam, and Idukki districts due to expected heavy downpours.

### 5. What is the precipitation outlook for the northeastern states?
Rainfall activity is anticipated across Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura from 2 to 7 October.

### 6. What weather conditions are forecasted for the national capital, Delhi?
Delhi will see clear skies with maximum temperatures between 33°C and 35°C, minimums from 21°C to 23°C, and winds blowing at around 20 km/h.

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