# Why Opposition Should Not Rejoice Over Bankipur By-Poll Trends: Lessons From How BJP Bounced Back After 2018 Gorakhpur Loss

> While opposition parties are thrilled over Jan Suraaj chief Prashant Kishor taking an early lead of over 8,000 votes in the Bankipur by-election, historical precedents like the 2018 Gorakhpur Lok Sabha by-poll prove that temporary by-election setbacks rarely determine long-term political outcomes.

**Type:** article · **Category:** Politics · **Published:** 2026-08-03 · **Source:** TrendKia
**Canonical:** https://trendkia.com/en/politics/bankipur-upachunava-ke-rujhanon-para-ati-utsaha-se-bache-vipaksha-2018-men-gorakhpur-ki-hara-ke-bada-bjp-ne-aise-diya-tha-karara-j-13176 · **Language:** English
**Tags:** Bankipur By Election, Prashant Kishor, Nitin Nabin, Samrat Choudhary, Gorakhpur By Election, Yogi Adityanath, Bihar Politics

Early trend lines in the Bankipur assembly by-election in Bihar have injected intense excitement into the state's political landscape. As of around 2:00 PM, figures show Jan Suraaj party chief Prashant Kishor leading by a substantial margin of over 8,000 votes. This seat fell vacant following the resignation of BJP National President Nitin Nabin from the legislative assembly. Opposition parties have seized upon the early figures showing the Bharatiya Janata Party trailing, projecting it as a devastating blow to the ruling coalition. Opponents argue that Bankipur was a vital proving ground for both Nitin Nabin and Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary, claiming both appear to be faltering in their very first major electoral assessment under the new setup. However, historical political patterns strongly suggest that opposition groups should refrain from over-interpreting initial by-poll trends, as the BJP has a long-standing track record of rebounding from localized by-election losses with significantly magnified strength in subsequent general elections.

## The High-Stakes Contest in Bankipur
Bankipur has traditionally been regarded as an impregnable citadel for the BJP and Nitin Nabin personally. Nitin Nabin represented this constituency as an MLA for five consecutive terms before stepping down. Following his appointment as the BJP National President, he was subsequently elected to the Rajya Sabha, prompting his formal resignation from the Bankipur assembly seat. Concurrently, this election represents the first significant test for the state leadership under Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary since taking charge of the state administration. Opposition strategists are consequently trying to frame the early trailing position of the BJP as a direct verdict against the combined leadership of Nitin Nabin and Samrat Choudhary. Nevertheless, seasoned electoral analysts point out that by-elections often turn on localized dynamics, lower voter turnouts, and tactical voting that rarely translate into broader shifts during full-fledged general elections.

## Lessons From the 2018 Gorakhpur By-Election
To understand why early by-poll setbacks should not be viewed as permanent political shifts, one needs only to examine the landmark 2018 Lok Sabha by-election in Gorakhpur, Uttar Pradesh. Gorakhpur is universally recognized as the personal political stronghold of UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. The city houses the famous Gorakhnath Math, a premier temple of the Nath monastic order, after which the city itself is named and of which Yogi Adityanath serves as the head priest or Mahant. Following the BJP's massive victory in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, Yogi Adityanath was chosen to head the state government as Chief Minister. Prior to assuming office, he had served as the Member of Parliament from the Gorakhpur Lok Sabha seat. Upon stepping down to take charge of the state, a parliamentary by-election was conducted in March 2018.

For nearly seven consecutive elections leading up to 2018, the Gorakhpur seat had been held uninterruptedly by Yogi Adityanath and his revered guru, Yogi Avaidyanath. The constituency was considered completely unbeatable for any opposition party. Yet, in the March 2018 by-election, that decade-long streak was unexpectedly broken. The Samajwadi Party fielded Praveen Kumar Nishad, who received crucial external support from the Bahujan Samaj Party. This tactical alliance managed to pull off a major political upset, with SP candidate Praveen Nishad defeating BJP candidate Upendra Shukla by a margin exceeding 21,000 votes. At the time, political commentators widely proclaimed the defeat as a severe blow to the party led nationally by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and regionally by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.

## How the BJP Reversed the Narrative in 2019
Riding high on the momentum generated by the Gorakhpur by-poll outcome, Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav and Bahujan Samaj Party leader Mayawati formed a grand formal alliance for the 2019 Lok Sabha general elections. In a historic moment for regional politics, BSP chief Mayawati shared a public campaign stage with SP patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav for the very first time in her career. Opposition leaders were convinced that replicating the Gorakhpur tactical alliance across Uttar Pradesh would completely dismantle the BJP's dominance in the state. However, when the actual general election results were declared in 2019, the outcome completely shattered the opposition's expectations.

Despite facing the combined electoral force of the SP-BSP alliance, the BJP delivered a dominant performance, securing 62 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh entirely on its own strength. Its regional ally, Apna Dal (Sonelal), captured an additional 2 seats. In sharp contrast, the grand coalition managed only modest gains, with the BSP winning 10 seats and the SP limited to just 5 seats, while the Congress was reduced to a single seat as party leader Rahul Gandhi suffered a high-profile defeat in Amethi. Most strikingly, the political script flipped entirely in Gorakhpur itself, where BJP nominee Ravi Kishan scored a crushing victory over SP candidate Rambhuvan Nishad by a colossal margin of over 3,00,000 votes. This dramatic historical turnaround underscores why reading too much into early trends in Bankipur would be a fundamental miscalculation.

## What this means for you
**In Bihar:** Early by-poll trends in Bankipur signal emerging political dynamics for regional parties like Jan Suraaj within traditional BJP strongholds.

**Across India:** The narrative highlights how localized by-election trends rarely predict future general election outcomes across state and national landscapes.

## Questions & Answers

### 1. Who is leading in the Bankipur assembly by-election?
According to trends around 2:00 PM, Jan Suraaj party chief Prashant Kishor is leading by over 8,000 votes.

### 2. Why was the by-election held in Bankipur?
The seat fell vacant after 5-time MLA Nitin Nabin resigned upon being elected to the Rajya Sabha following his appointment as BJP National President.

### 3. What happened during the 2018 Gorakhpur by-election?
In the March 2018 parliamentary by-poll, SP candidate Praveen Kumar Nishad, supported by the BSP, defeated BJP candidate Upendra Shukla by over 21,000 votes.

### 4. What was the result in Gorakhpur during the 2019 general elections?
BJP candidate Ravi Kishan won the Gorakhpur seat in 2019 by defeating SP candidate Rambhuvan Nishad by a margin of over 300,000 votes.

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