The mood around Bitcoin is turning darker again, and the bad news shows no sign of letting up. A well-known Chinese mining figure, Jiang Zhuoer, has put out a sobering forecast: the world's biggest cryptocurrency could slide all the way down to somewhere between $42,000 and $44,000 before 2026 is over. His reasoning leans heavily on a warning sign flashing inside Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin on the planet.
The mNAV Red Flag
At the heart of Zhuoer's call is Strategy's market-to-net asset value, or mNAV, which has slipped to 0.72. That figure is creeping uncomfortably close to the 0.7 mark last seen during the brutal 2022 downturn. Back then, Bitcoin cratered to around the $15,000 level. The worry now is simple: if history rhymes, another painful bloodbath could be waiting in 2026.
How Bitcoin Got Here
Bitcoin's troubles began in October 2025, just after it printed a fresh peak of $126,080. From there, mounting macroeconomic uncertainty and rising geopolitical tension pushed investors toward the exits. The market took another hit in February 2026 when conflict between the US and Iran rattled sentiment.
Another leg lower arrived earlier this month after US inflation jumped to 4.2% in May 2026. With the durability of the US-Iran peace deal in doubt, crude oil prices could spike in the days ahead, and costlier oil would pile even more pressure on the economy. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its most recent meeting, but many observers expect two rate hikes before the year ends. If that happens, Bitcoin could be staring at yet another correction.
Not Everyone Is Bearish
There is a more optimistic camp. Anthony Scaramucci argues that Bitcoin has already found its floor. He expects the asset to pick up momentum over the coming months and sees it climbing to $70,000 as soon as next month.
A Possible Lifeline
Relief could also come from the regulatory front. The CLARITY Act is expected to be signed into law at some point this year, handing the crypto space added regulatory clarity. Clearer rules could rebuild investor confidence and give Bitcoin some breathing room.
