Bitcoin is struggling to stay on its feet this week, with the world's largest cryptocurrency hovering around $62,600 on Tuesday after shedding more than 2% in the previous session. A fresh flare-up in the standoff between the United States and Iran has drained appetite for riskier bets, while heavy withdrawals from US-listed spot Bitcoin funds have deepened the gloom. Now the whole market is bracing for a US inflation reading and testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, two events that could set the direction for interest rates and, in turn, for Bitcoin itself.
Institutional signals are flashing caution too. Spot ETFs saw outflows of more than $425 million on Monday, wiping out the modest inflows recorded a week earlier. That reversal has sharpened the bearish tone hanging over the market at the start of the week.
US-Iran tensions keep risk assets on the back foot
Global markets are in a defensive crouch this week as renewed tensions between the United States and Iran shook investor confidence. The US military launched a third straight night of strikes against Iran on Monday after US President Donald Trump reimposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports. In response, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeted US facilities in the region, while Iranian cruise missiles struck two UAE tankers in the strait.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and rising geopolitical uncertainty pushed crude prices higher, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil climbing above $80 per barrel. Risky assets such as Bitcoin slipped below $62,000 on Monday and remain under pressure near $62,600 on Tuesday. Whenever war or conflict raises the level of uncertainty in the world, investors tend to rush toward assets they consider safe and pull money out of riskier holdings like Bitcoin, which is exactly what is playing out now.
Inflation figures and Fed testimony in focus
Traders are waiting for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due on Tuesday. A sharp drop in gasoline prices during June is expected to pull the headline number lower. The real attention, however, will be on the core CPI figures, since they serve as the most reliable gauge of the underlying inflation trend.
Alongside that, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his inaugural semi-annual monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, an appearance that could shift interest rate expectations. The rate outlook will then shape the near-term path of the US Dollar and give meaningful direction to risk-sensitive assets like Bitcoin.
According to market watchers, June's CPI will now serve as the primary test. As one analyst put it, "June CPI will now provide the primary test, with headline inflation expected to moderate to 3.9 percent and core inflation to 2.9 percent. Gradual disinflation and a Federal Reserve on hold would remain supportive of Bitcoin and other hard assets, but renewed energy disruption around the Strait of Hormuz or persistent core inflation could revive the risk of tighter monetary policy."
ETF outflows flip the mood
Institutional demand for Bitcoin opened the week on a sour note. Data from SoSoValue showed that spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded an outflow of $424.66 million on Monday, reversing the modest net inflows of $197.40 million seen the week before. If this outflow trend continues and intensifies through the week, Bitcoin could face a deeper correction. ETFs are essentially an easy on-ramp for large investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin, so money leaving them is treated as a strong signal of waning appetite.
Could the Clarity Act be a catalyst this week?
The US House of Representatives will hold a field hearing on the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act on Friday, as lawmakers keep pushing crypto market-structure legislation forward. Donald Trump posted on his Truth Social on Monday, "In honor of Senator Lindsey Graham, a big supporter, the U.S. Senate should pass the Clarity Act."
He described the legislation as essential to preserving US leadership in digital assets and artificial intelligence (AI) amid growing competition from China. Trump added, "China, and many other countries, would like to take complete and total control of this major financial 'happening,' as well as AI, where we are now leading, but where they are fighting hard. Don't let China win on either subject!!!"
The bill passed the House on July 17, 2025, with a 294–134 bipartisan vote and cleared the Senate Banking Committee in mid-May 2026, but it has not yet passed the full Senate. The Clarity Act is meant to act as a bridge that helps crypto grow into a mature industry, supporting the rollout of the GENIUS Act while sorting out the overlapping oversight between the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Under the Clarity Act, the CFTC has been handed authority over the spot market, extending its reach beyond crypto derivatives. Market participants view this as a win for the industry, since the CFTC is seen as taking a more principle-based approach than the SEC's disclosure-based framework. Friday's hearing marks an important step in aligning the House and Senate versions of the CLARITY Act ahead of the August 7 congressional recess, a crucial window for the bill's progress this year.
Bitcoin price forecast: still under the hood
Bitcoin is trading at $62,560 on Tuesday after falling more than 2% in the previous session. It is holding a bearish near-term bias, sitting below its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $65,070, $68,556 and $74,629 respectively. This cluster of overhead levels keeps a lid on any upside. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46 on the daily chart stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting at subdued upward momentum, even though the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) still holds in positive territory, suggesting only moderate recovery pressure.
On the upside, the first hurdle sits near $64,004, followed by the 50-day EMA at $65,070 and then the 100-day EMA at $68,556, all of which need to be reclaimed to ease the current downside bias. On the downside, the absence of clearly defined nearby support leaves Bitcoin exposed to fresh selling if momentum fades, with traders likely to watch the $60,000 key psychological level as a potential demand zone.
What the live market data shows
Live market data shows Bitcoin changing hands near $62,491, up about 0.41% from the previous close of $62,239. Over the past 52 weeks it has traded between $57,748 and $107,428. Among the live technical readings, RSI(14) stands at 47, while the MACD at -278.00 sits above its signal line of -588.76, tilting slightly bullish. On the moving averages, EMA20 is at $62,837, EMA50 at $65,014 and EMA200 at $75,762, confirming that the longer-term trend is still pointing down. The Bollinger Bands stretch from $58,395 to $65,378, with price sitting inside them. Nearby support is seen around $57,748 and resistance around $64,659, while the ATR(14), a measure of daily volatility, reads 1855.62. In the short term, Bitcoin is moving within a range between support at 58192 and resistance at 64055, and a decisive break through either level is what will clear up the next direction.
What exactly is an ETF
An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is essentially an investment vehicle or index that tracks the price of an underlying asset. ETFs can follow not just a single asset but a group of assets and sectors, so a Bitcoin ETF simply tracks Bitcoin's price. It is a convenient tool that lets investors gain exposure to a particular asset. The first Bitcoin futures ETF in the US was approved in October 2021, and a total of seven Bitcoin futures ETFs have since been cleared, with more than 20 still awaiting approval. Later, in January 2024, several spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved for listing and trading, opening the door for institutional capital and mainstream investors to enter crypto. The biggest advantage of an ETF is that investors can gain exposure to a cryptocurrency without directly owning it, which lowers the risk and cost of holding the asset. The main drawback is that investors do not hold the asset directly, and ETFs charge fees for active management.
