Gold and silver futures on the MCX slipped by roughly 1% each on Wednesday, July 15, 2026, weighed down by stubbornly high crude oil prices and firming bets on tighter monetary policy at home and abroad. In a curious twist, physical gold prices across India actually climbed on the same day, opening a clear gap between the futures screen and the jeweller's counter.
What global markets did
In international trade, spot gold eased nearly 1% to trade below $4,030 per ounce, while spot silver fell close to 1% to hover around $58 per ounce. Crude oil moved the other way. US WTI Crude climbed toward $80 a barrel and Brent Crude pushed near $86 a barrel. The US dollar, however, pulled away from the 101 mark after American CPI inflation came in softer than markets had expected.
Why MCX gold and silver slipped
The retreat in MCX gold and silver also carried a strong domestic trigger. India's CPI inflation jumped to 4.38%, higher than forecasts and above the RBI's 4% target for the first time since January 2025. That overshoot raised the odds of a rate hike in upcoming policy meetings. Higher interest rates typically dull the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold, which kept the market cautious.
US inflation cools, Fed stays measured
The annual US inflation rate slowed to 3.5% in June from 4.2% in May, undershooting the 3.8% forecast, as cheaper oil helped ease energy-related price pressures. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.4%, the first month-on-month decline since 2020. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, testifying before Congress on Tuesday, repeated the central bank's commitment to restoring price stability but stopped short of signaling a more aggressive stance. Even so, traders still put the chance of a September Fed rate hike at roughly 50%, as fresh tensions between the US and Iran lifted oil and kept inflation worries firmly on investors' radar.
Middle East tensions fan the oil fire
Bullion's caution was tied closely to the geopolitical backdrop. The US launched another round of strikes against Iran and reinstated its naval blockade of Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz, stoking fears of fresh disruptions to global energy supplies. Silver drifted toward its recent lows on Wednesday, trimming gains from the previous session, while gold eased toward the $4,000 an ounce mark, handing back part of the prior day's advance.
Losses deepen in afternoon trade
By afternoon, both MCX gold and MCX silver had extended their falls by about 1% each, struggling near Rs 1,41,100 per 10 grams and Rs 2,20,950 per kilogram respectively. MCX crude oil, in sharp contrast, surged nearly 2%. Among base metals, zinc rose while copper slipped.
Physical gold rises across India
Physical gold told a different story. Rates across India jumped sharply on July 15, 2026, helped by the weaker US dollar and the softer-than-expected US CPI data. The move was the first gain of the week and followed two straight sessions of declines. Between July 13 and July 14, 24-carat gold had dropped Rs 15,300 per 100 grams and Rs 1,530 per 10 grams. On Wednesday, 24-carat gold rose by at least Rs 7,700 per 100 grams, with 10 grams reaching around the Rs 1,43,500 mark. Elevated crude prices and a pressured rupee, however, capped how far the safe-haven metal could climb. Unlike physical rates, MCX gold traded under pressure below Rs 1.42 lakh, while MCX silver dipped below the Rs 2.23 lakh mark, tracking the cautious and volatile tone in spot gold and silver.
The rates carat by carat
In 18-carat, 100 grams of gold jumped by Rs 5,700 to Rs 10,76,700, while 10 grams soared by Rs 570 to Rs 1,07,670. Alongside, 8 grams gained Rs 456 to reach Rs 86,136 and 1 gram rose Rs 57 to Rs 10,767.
In 22-carat, 10 grams of gold climbed by Rs 700 to Rs 1,31,600, while 100 grams shot up by Rs 7,000 to Rs 13.16 lakh. Here, 8 grams advanced Rs 560 to Rs 1,05,280 and 1 gram gained Rs 70 to Rs 13,160.
In 24-carat, 100 grams of gold zoomed by Rs 7,700 to Rs 14,35,700, while 10 grams rose by Rs 770 to Rs 1,43,570. In the same category, 8 grams and 1 gram surged by Rs 616 and Rs 77 to Rs 1,14,856 and Rs 14,357 respectively.
MCX gold and silver levels
MCX silver plunged a little over Rs 900 to trade around Rs 2,22,286 per kilogram after touching an intraday low of Rs 2,21,046 per kilogram amid cautious market trends. MCX gold dropped by nearly Rs 800 to trade around Rs 1,41,500 per 10 grams, even as the US dollar weakened and US CPI inflation came in softer than expected.
Down 20% from the peak, yet Rs 20,000 dearer
Stepping back, gold in India has been substantially repriced through 2026. From a late-January peak of Rs 1,78,850 per 10 grams of 24-carat gold, rates have slid to below Rs 1.44 lakh now, a fall of nearly 20% in 999-purity gold from its high. Yet even at these cheaper levels, buyers picking up 10 grams still have to shell out an extra Rs 20,000 on their purchase.
ANZ trims its target
On the outlook, ANZ lowered its year-end 2026 gold price target to $3,600 per ounce, citing changing macroeconomic conditions, particularly expectations of a more hawkish US Federal Reserve and a stronger US dollar. Despite the downgrade, the bank remains constructive on gold's longer-term prospects.
