Precious metals opened the week on a firm footing, with gold pushing higher in early trade on July 6th as softer US economic data and cheaper crude oil kept the pressure off bullion. In the opening hours of the day, spot gold changed hands at roughly $4,192 an ounce, up nearly 0.6%, while spot silver edged up to about $62.55 an ounce. The move carried forward the gains built through the previous week.
Why gold and silver are climbing
The rally traces back to a cooler read on the US economy. Weaker-than-expected jobs numbers and a slide in crude oil prices have tempered worries about rate hikes stretching into 2026. When the fear of higher rates eases, non-yielding assets like gold look more attractive to investors, and that is exactly what is pulling bullion higher.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate hike has slipped to 50% from the 66% seen earlier. The dollar reacted to the latest jobs report as well, easing back from the 101 mark. A softer dollar typically makes dollar-priced metals cheaper for buyers holding other currencies, which supports demand.
Where physical rates stand in India
In the domestic market, 10 grams of 24 carat gold was priced at around Rs 1,46,720 in the early hours of July 6th, with 22 carat at Rs 1,07,592 and 18 carat at Rs 88,032. These rates can be revised as the trading day moves ahead.
Silver was no different at the top of the market. One kilogram of physical silver was quoted at around Rs 2.50 lakh, while 100 grams was available at Rs 25,000 and 10 grams at Rs 2,500. In short, prices stayed elevated for both large and small buyers.
MCX futures last week
On the futures side, MCX gold for the August 5th expiry stood at Rs 1,47,365 per 10 grams last week, after crossing the Rs 1.48 lakh mark on July 3rd. Silver held its ground too, with MCX silver at around Rs 2,37,499 per 1 kilogram after moving past the Rs 2.38 lakh level.
What analysts at SMC Global Securities say
Analysts at SMC Global Securities noted that bullion counters saw a strong week-on-week recovery, helped by a shift in the global inflation outlook and softer US economic data. In their view, the biggest reason behind gold's rebound was the decline in crude oil prices, which eased inflation concerns and strengthened expectations that the US Federal Reserve may adopt a less aggressive monetary policy.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh also acknowledged that inflation has shown signs of moderation, indicating that this could eventually feed into future policy decisions. Adding to the upbeat mood, both US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and private payroll figures came in far weaker than the market had expected, suggesting the labor market is gradually losing steam.
For June 2026, the US added only 57,000 jobs, sharply below the market estimate of 110,000, which reduced fears of prolonged higher interest rates. As a result, the dollar weakened on a weekly basis, making dollar-denominated bullion more attractive for overseas buyers. Markets pared back September Fed rate hike expectations, with the odds slipping to 54% from 66%. Even so, hopes of further rate hikes have not fully disappeared, which could keep gold volatile in the months ahead.
Backing the broader bullish tone, the World Gold Council reported that global central banks added a net 41 tonnes of gold to their reserves during May, underlining continued long-term demand for the metal.
Technical outlook for the week ahead
Laying out the weekly technical picture for precious metals, SMC analysts said MCX Gold saw a healthy bounce after taking support near its 200-day EMA, a sign of buying interest at lower levels. For the coming week, COMEX Gold is expected to trade in the range of $3,950 to $4,290, while COMEX Silver may stay within $55 to $72. On MCX, gold is likely to move between Rs 1,40,000 and Rs 1,52,000, whereas silver is expected to hold in the Rs 2,23,000 to Rs 2,48,000 band.
Taken together, a weaker dollar, cheaper crude and a softening US labor market are all lining up in bullion's favor, though the lingering uncertainty over interest rates could still hand traders some sharp swings this week.
