David Einhorn, an investor known for high-profile market calls, made a notable move in Q1 2026. His firm DME Capital opened a brand-new position in StubHub Holdings (NYSE: STUB), and the market reacted almost instantly. Shares climbed roughly 7% as soon as the news broke. By June 15, StubHub stock was trading at $11.50, up 15% over the previous five days.
What makes the setup interesting is how far the stock still sits below its potential. The 52-week high stands at $27.89, leaving plenty of room to recover, while the current analyst price target is around $13. Add in the World Cup running from mid-June through mid-July, and Einhorn's timing looks, at the very least, carefully thought through.
What Einhorn Laid Out at Sohn
At the Sohn Investment Conference on May 12, 2026, David Einhorn spelled out his broader investing thesis, and that framing is exactly what makes the StubHub bet feel so deliberate. The Greenlight Capital founder opened with a remark that was widely picked up:
"While the market appears expensive in the US, we're finding interesting investments where management is repositioning businesses towards more durable, more disciplined, and more cash generative growth. The value creation question is whether management can convert the strategic change into better visibility, better margins and eventually a better multiple."
Earnings That Back the Story
StubHub fits that description rather neatly. The company spent heavily through 2025 to grab market share, and those investments are now showing up in the results. Q1 2026 revenue rose 12% year over year to $446 million, gross merchandise sales grew 7% to $2.2 billion, and adjusted EBITDA landed at $72.1 million. Margins expanded by more than 400 basis points to reach 16%.
Cost discipline showed up too. Sales and marketing expenses fell to roughly 50% of revenue, down from 55% a year earlier, while gross margin held steady at 85%.
Cutting debt has been a major part of the StubHub turnaround as well. Over the past 12 months, the company repaid more than $1 billion in total debt, and net leverage improved to roughly 4x trailing adjusted EBITDA, down from 4.5x at the end of 2025. No debt matures until March 2030, which lifts a great deal of near-term pressure off the balance sheet. Management also kept its full-year GMS guidance at $9.9 billion to $10.1 billion, with adjusted EBITDA guidance of $400 million to $420 million.
What Comes Next for the Stock
In Q1, international growth outpaced North America, with particular strength in Latin America and Asia-Pacific. Management pointed out that about half of all tickets on the platform sell for less than $100, which offers some cushion if consumer spending softens. According to comments on the earnings call, Q2 was also tracking in line with expectations.
Einhorn's move into STUB adds institutional credibility to a recovery story that was already gaining momentum on its own fundamentals. On free cash flow yield and balance sheet resilience, StubHub screens reasonably well against many legacy peers, even if it still lags larger digital platforms on growth visibility. The $13 analyst target reflects that improving picture, and whether the stock can work its way back toward its 52-week high of $27.89 will depend largely on whether earnings growth holds through the second half of the year.
