The monsoon has slowed to a crawl across most of India this year, and the impact is hard to miss. Several states in the plains are desperate for even a few drops of rain, with drought-like conditions setting in. Yet at the very same moment, one corner of the country has turned the picture upside down. Ladakh, the cold desert where rain is normally a rarity, is unexpectedly getting soaked.
Fresh figures from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) show a sharp 40 percent drop in monsoon rainfall nationwide. In the first two weeks of June, the whole country recorded just 39.7 millimetres of rain. Ladakh, by contrast, has seen 96 percent more rain than normal, almost twice what it usually gets. It is exactly this contradiction that has scientists worried.
Where Did All This Rain in Ladakh Come From
According to weather experts, the biggest driver is a western disturbance active over north India. Combined with moisture pulled in from surrounding areas, it has multiplied rainfall over this high, dry region. In plain numbers, Ladakh typically receives only 2.2 millimetres of rain through June, but this time it has already logged 4.3 millimetres.
The figures may look tiny, but for a place where rain barely registers, this is a big deal. What makes it stranger is that the main monsoon winds are currently stalled over central and western India, and yet local weather systems are keeping the clouds bursting over the hill regions.
How Far the Monsoon Has Travelled
The weather department says the northern limit of the southwest monsoon currently runs through 18°N/60°E, 18°N/65°E and 18°N/70°E, then on to Harnai, Solapur, Hyderabad, Bhadrachalam, Koraput, Phulbani, Ranchi, Jamui, Muzaffarpur and 28.3°N/83°E. Conditions, it adds, remain favourable for the monsoon to advance further.
Why Scientists Are Alarmed
This shift in weather over this part of the Himalayas points to anything but a good outcome. Scientists believe that high-altitude areas that once saw only snowfall are now getting heavy rain instead, and that change is the heart of the worry. Intense rain sharply raises the risk of flash floods and landslides in the mountains. On top of that, glaciers melting faster could trigger sudden flooding events.
What the Rest of the Country Looks Like
Elsewhere, states such as Maharashtra and Gujarat have seen rainfall deficits ranging from 60 to 100 percent. There is still hope on the horizon, though. The IMD expects that after 20 June, moisture flowing in from the Arabian Sea will revive the monsoon and push the stalled rains forward.
