The very fear that meteorologists had been flagging for months — a Super El Niño — now appears to be playing out in real time. Its direct fallout is being felt on the southwest monsoon, whose pace has stayed far slower than expected. With June nearly half over, the monsoon has still not pushed into large parts of the country with full force.
Ordinarily, by this point the monsoon would have already crossed all of West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra. Instead, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), it has so far advanced only into a few parts of Bihar and Jharkhand. But a slow monsoon does not mean calm skies. On the contrary, a mixed bag of rain, dust storms, lightning and heatwave conditions across different corners of the country has completely shifted the weather's mood.
Why the Weather Is So Unsettled
Several systems are jointly steering the country's weather right now. These include a western disturbance active over Haryana and its surroundings, a cyclonic circulation sitting over Pakistan and Rajasthan, and systems over the Bay of Bengal and northeast India. Together they are triggering bouts of rain and gusty winds across many states. The IMD says heavy rain is likely today across several states in the northeast, east and south, while Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and some other areas are under an alert for squally winds, thunder and lightning. Parts of Maharashtra, meanwhile, continue to swelter under a heatwave. Over the next two to three days, the department expects the monsoon to advance into more areas of Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and southern Chhattisgarh — though much of north India will remain waiting for now.
Clouds Dominate the Northeast and East
Despite the monsoon's slow march, the rain in northeast India shows no sign of letting up. A warning for heavy to very heavy rainfall on June 14 has been issued for Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura, raising the risk of floods and landslides in several areas. The weather will stay active in eastern India too, affecting Odisha, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. Some Bihar districts could see heavy rain coupled with strong winds, while in Odisha heavy rain combined with sticky, humid conditions may add to people's troubles.
Monsoon on Firmer Footing in the South
Monsoon clouds remain consistently active over Kerala, coastal Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Heavy rain is forecast for parts of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Andhra Pradesh, while Telangana could see rain accompanied by thunder, lightning and gusty winds. The IMD notes that, compared with the rest of the country, the monsoon situation in south India is relatively healthy, and rainfall activity here is expected to pick up further in the days ahead.
Heat Set to Make a Comeback in Delhi
Residents of the capital will have to wait a little longer for the monsoon. The western disturbance may bring partial cloud cover and light drizzle in some pockets of Delhi, but that relief is unlikely to last. According to the IMD, both the maximum and minimum temperatures in Delhi could climb by 3 to 4 degrees Celsius over the next five days — meaning heat and humidity are ready to test residents once again. Gusty winds in the evening across Delhi-NCR may offer some respite, but the wait for the monsoon's cooling showers is far from over.
A Mixed Picture in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand
The weather in Uttar Pradesh will vary sharply from region to region. Eastern UP will stay cloudy, with thunderstorms and rain likely in several districts and the chance of strong winds in places. Western UP, by contrast, will be relatively calm, where light rain and passing clouds could take some edge off the heat — a shift that may bring welcome relief for farmers.
In Uttarakhand's hilly belts, the spell of rain will continue, with thundershowers likely at many spots. The risk of slippery stretches and landslides along the Chardham Yatra routes could rise, and pilgrims have been advised to exercise extra caution.
Relief Through Rain for Bihar and Jharkhand
Bihar is in for a highly active weather day on June 14. Warnings of heavy rain, lightning strikes and strong winds have been issued for many parts of the state, with some districts likely to record heavy rainfall. Jharkhand too will see continued rain and thundery activity, pulling temperatures down and easing the heat. Even so, the weather office has urged people to stay alert to the threat of lightning.
Storm Alert for Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh
Eastern Rajasthan is under a warning for fierce winds blowing at 70 to 80 kilometres per hour, while parts of western Rajasthan could face dust storms along with thunder and lightning. Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha are also likely to see gusty winds and rain. With conditions liable to turn suddenly, people have been advised to stay cautious. And while large swathes of the country wait for rain, the Vidarbha and Marathwada regions of Maharashtra are still grappling with relentless heat.
