Wholesale inflation in the country has picked up pace once again. Driven by rising prices of both food and non-food items, the wholesale inflation rate climbed to 9.87 percent in June, up from 9.68 percent in May. The biggest reason behind this jump is the deepening crisis in West Asia and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has fed directly into food prices. It is worth remembering that India imports most of its crude oil through the very same Strait of Hormuz, so any disruption on this sea route feeds straight into domestic prices.
Oil and food items pile on the pressure
The Ministry of Commerce and Industry released the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) figures on Tuesday. According to the ministry, the June 2026 wholesale inflation numbers clearly reflected the rising prices of mineral oil (which includes petroleum products), food articles, manufactured basic metals, and manufactured chemicals and chemical products. The base year used to calculate the Wholesale Price Index is 2022-23.
How the categories stacked up
A closer look at the data shows that wholesale inflation in the fuel and power category stood at 27.41 percent in June, compared with 30.33 percent in May, meaning this segment saw some relief. On the other hand, food inflation added to the worry, jumping from 3.60 percent in May to 5.49 percent in June. Wholesale inflation in non-food items was recorded at 11.07 percent, while the minerals category came in at 9.45 percent. In the manufactured products category, inflation held steady at 7.48 percent in June, the same as in May.
The one-year journey of wholesale inflation
Over the past twelve months, wholesale inflation has followed a bumpy path. For several months the rate hovered around zero or slipped into negative territory, but from the start of 2026 it has shot up sharply. The month-by-month figures are as follows
- May 2025: 0.39%
- June 2025: -0.13%
- July 2025: -0.58%
- August 2025: 0.52%
- September 2025: 0.13%
- October 2025: -1.21%
- November 2025: -0.32%
- December 2025: 0.83%
- January 2026: 1.81%
- February 2026: 2.13%
- March 2026: 3.88%
- April 2026: 8.26%
- May 2026: 9.68%
- June 2026: 9.87%
Retail inflation hits a 17-month high
It is not just wholesale prices; the retail inflation that touches ordinary households has also risen. Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation climbed to a 17-month high of 4.38 percent in June, up from 3.93 percent the previous month. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) primarily looks at this consumer inflation while framing its monetary policy, which makes the figure all the more significant.
RBI raises its inflation forecast
The government has tasked the Reserve Bank of India with keeping overall inflation at 4 percent, with a margin of 2 percent on either side. Recently, the RBI raised its inflation forecast for the current financial year from 4.6 percent the previous month to 5.1 percent. The main reason cited was the rise in global energy prices, which is pushing up retail petrol and diesel prices and, in turn, overall costs.
