The Polish Zloty faced renewed selling pressure against regional peers after the National Bank of Poland (NBP) concluded its latest press conference without validating market pricing for an immediate interest rate hike. Financial markets had been actively positioning for a tightening move in November, but remarks from central bank leadership indicated that conditions for higher borrowing costs may not materialize as quickly as traders anticipated, prompting a pullback in the Zloty relative to the Hungarian Forint.
NBP Policy Guidance and November Rate Expectations
Tatha Ghose at Commerzbank noted that the recent press conference by NBP Governor Adam Glapinski delivered a net dovish surprise relative to expectations that had called for a firmer tightening signal. Glapinski did outline specific criteria for future policy tightening and abandoned previous forward guidance that had projected unchanged benchmark rates until mid-2027. However, he emphasized that he does not expect those conditions to be satisfied by November.
According to Glapinski, the NBP remains prepared to act if secondary inflationary effects begin to surface or if the forthcoming November projections present a sharply elevated inflation path. Because the crucial qualification was that these criteria are unlikely to be in place in time for the November gathering, foreign exchange markets reassessed their baseline assumptions, leading to softness in the Zloty against regional peers like the Hungarian Forint.
USD/PLN Technical Backdrop and Market Levels
In foreign exchange trading, USD/PLN is currently changing hands around 3.90, down 0.20% from its prior close of 3.91. Over the past 52 weeks, the currency pair has traded within a band spanning 3.49 to 3.93, with trading volume matching its 20-day average at 1.00x. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 72, pointing to overbought conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) sits at 0.04 against a signal line of 0.04, with a positive histogram of 0.01 reflecting an underlying bullish bias.
Moving averages demonstrate an ongoing structural uptrend. The 20-day EMA rests at 3.84, the 50-day EMA at 3.79, and the 200-day EMA at 3.70, accompanied by a 50-day SMA of 3.76 and a 200-day SMA of 3.68. The positioning of the 50-day EMA above the 200-day EMA constitutes a golden cross. Bollinger Bands (20, 2) span from 3.73 to 3.94, the Average Directional Index (ADX) reads 45 to indicate strong trend momentum, and Stochastic oscillators show the fast line at 80 alongside a signal line of 78. With daily volatility measured by an ATR (14) of 0.03, key pivot levels stand at 3.90, resistances at R1 3.91 and R2 3.91, and supports at S1 3.89 and S2 3.88, framed by 20-day support near 3.73 and resistance near 3.93.
Dynamics in AUD/USD and USD/JPY Pairs
Across broader currency trading, AUD/USD gathered upward traction in Asia on Friday, extending its rebound from weekly lows toward the 0.7000 threshold. An overnight decline in US Treasury yields prevented the US Dollar from revisiting its 18-month high, lending background support to the pair. Concurrently, hawkish monetary policy expectations surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia continued to underpin the Australian Dollar.
Meanwhile, USD/JPY maintained stability near 158.00 after Friday data revealed that Japanese household spending contracted for a ninth straight month, exerting downward pressure on the Japanese Yen. The broader greenback remained subdued as softer bond yields countered ongoing Federal Reserve policy expectations and geopolitical risks, containing downside swings for the exchange rate.
Gold Recovery and Upcoming Canadian Employment Data
In commodity markets, Gold held firm around $4,200 on Friday, building on its rebound from two-month troughs. A moderation in the US Dollar alongside easier crude oil prices and Treasury yields provided room for the metal to recover, even as market participants await fresh US sentiment indicators. While directional momentum has improved, daily RSI indicators continue to carry a bearish tilt.
Attention will also turn to North American economic indicators as Statistics Canada prepares to publish its September Labour Force Survey on Friday. Analysts look for a modest stabilization in hiring following August's steep contraction. The upcoming release carries added significance because it represents the initial comprehensive read on employment since new United States trade tariffs took effect on August 22.
