China is projected to maintain a balanced operational pace as it enters the fourth quarter, marked by a seasonal cooling in manufacturing and trade alongside modest improvements across domestic investment and retail turnover. Consumer price index inflation is expected to stay below 1% on an annual basis, accompanied by a narrower trade surplus, seasonal moderation in local currency lending, and stronger momentum in corporate bond issuance.
Industrial Output and Trade Expectations
Industrial production is projected to see its two-year compound annual growth rate moderate to 5.1% after recording an earlier jump in September, according to Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding. Meanwhile, outbound shipments are poised for robust performance, driven by external demand for artificial intelligence hardware and technology components. Favourable base comparisons are anticipated to support export growth exceeding 30% year-on-year.
Fixed asset investment is expected to show progress as official policy funding continues to flow into key infrastructure and development projects. On the pricing front, annual consumer inflation is projected to hold around 0.9%, as accelerating food deflation offsets the inflationary impact of higher energy costs.
Foreign Exchange Fluctuations Across Major Pairs
Currency markets saw the Australian Dollar register its second straight daily decline against the US Dollar. The currency pair slipped back toward the 0.6960 territory, touching multi-day lows after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its official cash rate by 25 basis points in line with broad forecasts, accompanied by a policy stance viewed as less hawkish than anticipated.
In Asian trading hours, the US Dollar pulled back against the Japanese Yen, trimming a portion of its previous advance toward 158.00. The Greenback traded with a subdued tone amid diplomatic discussions involving Iran and broader positioning ahead of US midterm elections. While the risk of currency intervention lent underlying support to the Yen, ambiguity surrounding the precise schedule for future Bank of Japan rate hikes kept the exchange rate confined within a defined band.
Developments in Energy, Bullion, and Digital Currencies
Crude oil prices witnessed a rebound following military action involving a US strike on Qeshm Island in Iran, which weakened upside momentum in precious metals. Spot gold dropped 0.93% on the day to trade near $3,909. While firmer oil prices and Middle East tensions offered fundamental support to the US Dollar Index, domestic political developments kept the index capped below the 102.00 threshold.
Digital asset markets faced broad selling pressure as Bitcoin fell to $76,566, testing six-week lows. Ethereum similarly traded under strain while consolidating within a tight technical support band. Meanwhile, Ripple changed hands marginally above the $1.25 mark.
