The Australian Dollar is holding on to a cautiously bullish tone against the US Dollar, and according to currency strategists at UOB, that upside stays in play for as long as the pair defends the 0.6950 mark. Live market data shows AUD/USD changing hands at 0.7011 at the closing bell on 21 July, up 0.46 percent from the previous close of 0.6979.
The pair is really being read through two lenses right now, one very near-term and one covering the next one to three weeks. Both come back to the same pivot, the 0.6950 support.
The next 24 hours
Last Thursday the pair drifted sideways with no clear direction, ranging between 0.6986 and 0.7012. Going into Friday, UOB expected more of the same and pencilled in a 0.6980 to 0.7015 band. Price did not follow that script, and the Aussie eased to a low of 0.6966. What mattered most is that the slip failed to trigger any real build-up of downward pressure. For the current session, UOB sees the pair boxed between 0.6960 and 0.7000.
The one to three week swing
Rewind a little to Wednesday 15 July, with spot around 0.6975, when UOB noted that upward momentum was starting to build but cautioned it was too early to say whether the Aussie could break the significant 0.7015 resistance. The pair then pushed up to 0.7021, and by Thursday 16 July, with spot at 0.7005, the bank judged that the rapid pickup in momentum opened the door to a move toward 0.7045.
That advance did not hold. On Friday the Australian Dollar slid back to a low of 0.6966, and momentum is now beginning to fade. Even so, UOB stresses that the uptrend scenario survives unless 0.6950 gives way. That strong support level is unchanged, and only a clean break beneath it would signal that the run toward 0.7045 is off the table for now.
Where the price sits today
The live readings put the pair just under resistance. The 14-day RSI is at 55, neither hot nor cold. On the moving averages, the EMA20 sits at 0.6972, the EMA50 at 0.7011 and the longer-term EMA200 at 0.6876, which shows the broader trend is still pointed up and a golden-cross setup is in place. Near-term support is seen around 0.6866 and resistance around 0.7016. Over the past 52 weeks the pair has travelled between 0.6415 and 0.7277. Taken together, the live picture lines up with UOB's core view, that the upside risk holds while 0.6950 stays safe.
The wider market backdrop
The Aussie is not moving in a vacuum, it is tied to the mood across currencies and risk assets. In Monday's European session, the British Pound, or GBP/USD, defended minor bids above 1.3450, helped by listless trading in the US Dollar. Markets are still weighing developments around US-Iran tensions after the weekend hostilities, and the UK employment report is in focus on Tuesday.
The Euro, or EUR/USD, faded its renewed uptick toward 1.1450 as caution driven by the US-Iran conflict offset hawkish expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB is widely expected to hold rates this Thursday, but it could signal a rate hike for September given rising inflation risks from the war's impact on energy prices.
Gold struggled to build on a modest intraday bounce and traded around the 4,000 dollar psychological mark, close to unchanged. Rising geopolitical tensions and expectations of higher US interest rates are supporting the US Dollar, which caps the upside in the metal and favours the bears.
In crypto, Ethereum outperformed its peers over the past week, posting double-digit gains and beating Bitcoin, XRP and Solana, before the broader market began to correct from Thursday. Under the surface, though, key metrics suggest that rally remains fragile. Cardano (ADA), meanwhile, stalled at 0.165 dollars after a modest rebound. The Van Rossem hard fork went live on Saturday, marking Cardano's first protocol upgrade approved entirely through onchain governance, bringing in Protocol Version 11 with improvements aimed at reducing smart contract costs.
On inflation, the June CPI fell 0.4 percent on the month, the largest one-month decline since April 2020. That dragged the annual rate down to 3.5 percent from May's 4.2 percent and snapped a three-month acceleration streak. Core prices went nowhere, flat on the month and easing to 2.6 percent year on year, both below consensus. It is this mixed backdrop that will decide whether the Australian Dollar can hold the 0.6950 line and push on toward 0.7045.
