The euro is holding its ground against the US dollar, but its immediate fate now rests on a single number: 1.1405. As long as that support level stays intact, the currency keeps a modest upside bias, according to analysis from UOB. Break below it, and the outlook shifts back to directionless range trading.
The next 24 hours
Last Friday, with EUR/USD sitting at 1.1445, the read was that the price action looked like a consolidation phase between 1.1420 and 1.1465. That call held up, even though the pair ended up moving in a tighter band than expected, trading between 1.1424 and 1.1452.
After opening on a soft note today, the euro slipped slightly, but the modest pickup in downward momentum isn't strong enough to signal a sustained slide. The likelier scenario is that the euro edges a little lower while staying boxed inside the 1.1405 to 1.1450 range.
The one to three week view
The medium-term stance goes back to last Thursday, 16 July, when spot was at 1.1470. At the time the thinking was that the euro was likely to trade with an upside bias, though it was too early to say whether it had enough momentum to reach the significant resistance at 1.1520. The caveat: a breach of the 1.1405 strong support level would show the euro had reverted to a range-trading phase.
Since then the euro hasn't managed to gain any ground on the upside. Even so, the upside-bias view stays in place as long as 1.1405 isn't clearly broken. Put another way, the bulls haven't delivered, but they haven't been knocked out either.
What the live charts show
Live market data backs up the cautious, range-bound tone. EUR/USD is trading around 1.14, essentially flat on the day at down 0.09% from the previous close, and sitting inside a 52-week band of roughly 1.13 to 1.20. The 14-day RSI is at 44, a neutral reading with a slight downward lean. ADX at 25 points to a weak trend, consistent with range trading rather than a strong directional move. On momentum, the pair sits below its EMA50 (1.15) and EMA200 (1.16), with an EMA50-below-EMA200 death cross keeping the longer-term backdrop tilted lower even as the short-term picture stays contained.
Ethereum flexes, but the strength looks fragile
Away from currencies, Ethereum has been the standout among the major cryptocurrencies. Over the past week it built up relative strength against its peers, posting double-digit gains between last week and Wednesday and outrunning Bitcoin, XRP and Solana. But under the hood, key metrics suggest the rally is shaky. The outperformance began to fade once the broader crypto market rolled over into a correction on Thursday.
Pepe rides rising demand
Pepe, meanwhile, is grinding higher and holding on to the recovery tone it has shown over the last three weeks. Large-wallet investors are showing more appetite for the token even as the supply sitting on exchanges shrinks, a combination that often points to accumulation. Retail interest is picking up too: PEPE futures Open Interest jumped 11% in 24 hours.
A cooler inflation print
The macro backdrop delivered a notable data point as well. June CPI fell 0.4% on the month, the sharpest one-month drop since April 2020. That pulled the annual rate down to 3.5% from May's 4.2% and ended a three-month streak of accelerating inflation. Core prices, which strip out the volatile items, went nowhere on the month and eased to 2.6% year-on-year, with both readings coming in below consensus.
What traders are watching next
Taken together, the message across these markets is one of caution rather than conviction. For the euro, everything hinges on 1.1405 on the downside and 1.1520 on the upside; until one of those gives way, the pair is likely to keep chopping inside a range. The softer inflation reading adds another layer, since cooler prices can reshape expectations for interest rates, and those rate expectations are among the biggest drivers of where the dollar, and therefore the euro, heads next.
