Shares of Reliance Industries witnessed an extraordinary surge of over 11 percent at the start of the trading week, yet market experts indicate that this strong upward move is merely an opening sample of a much larger structural advance. Deven Choksey, Managing Director of DRChoksey Finserv, has outlined an aggressive price target of Rs 1800 for the heavyweight counter. According to his market assessment, the stock possesses the momentum to advance by nearly 55 percent from its recent levels. Should the current operational pace sustain, the ultimate market trajectory could easily outpace this projection. The rationale powering this bullish forecast rests on robust profitability within the oil and chemicals division combined with the accelerating equity valuation of the company's stake in Jio Platforms.
Reflecting on the operating numbers, Deven Choksey highlighted that the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) segment of Reliance Industries extracted substantial margins from diesel processing throughout the September quarter. Industry trends suggest that this operational profitability is well positioned to extend right through the December quarter. Consequently, the target of Rs 1800 per share remains firmly grounded in real cash flows. When measured against Friday's closing mark, this target reflects an anticipated climb of approximately 55 percent, while even against Monday's sharp post-rally closing price, it maintains a potential upside in excess of 38 percent.
Strategic Global Crude Sourcing and High Refining Margins
A vital operational realignment unfolded across the refining and marketing vertical during the second quarter of the fiscal cycle. Reliance successfully reoriented its export routes and product despatches toward dynamic consumption centres across Europe and Africa. The structural mechanics behind this trade advantage stem from the procurement of discounted crude oil from Venezuela. By refining these economical crude varieties at its complex facilities, Reliance produces superior transportation fuels, primarily diesel and petrol, which are subsequently delivered to lucrative Western markets and African economies at substantial market premiums.
This advantageous commercial pathway has permitted Reliance to capture an exceptional gross refining margin (GRM). Essentially, the wide spread between the discounted purchase price of heavy crude inputs and the eventual global market realizations of finished fuels creates an outsized cash generation stream. As this pricing differential expands, total operating income multiplies. Deven Choksey maintains that the structural profits generated by discounted input sourcing and high-value product shipments will remain fully intact throughout the December quarter. The elevated expectations surrounding the O2C division during the September quarter were thoroughly substantiated by the published operating outcomes.
Unprecedented Financial Performance in Fiscal Quarter Two
The corporate earnings scorecard for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026-27 showed Reliance Industries establishing new historical benchmarks. Topline revenue for the three-month period escalated to a record Rs 3.62 lakh crore. Operating efficiency was evident in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), which touched Rs 62,409 crore. Meanwhile, bottom-line net profit expanded by an impressive 34 percent year-on-year to hit Rs 29,550 crore. The primary engine delivering these stellar quarterly figures was the O2C business vertical, and the continued strength of refining differentials is projected to provide strong balance-sheet support over future quarters.
Jio Platforms Stake Valuation Unlocks Latent Value
Beyond traditional industrial operations, the embedded valuation of Jio Platforms serves as an instrumental pillar supporting the higher target price. Reliance Industries maintains an equity holding of roughly 63 percent in Jio Platforms. Following its official debut on the stock exchanges, Jio Platforms has maintained strong market buoyancy, trading approximately 40 percent above its original issue price. This steady post-listing appreciation has directly enhanced the asset valuation of Reliance's dominant holding.
Translating this subsidiary performance into per-share figures, Deven Choksey calculates that Reliance's equity stake in Jio Platforms corresponds to roughly Rs 700 per Reliance share at prevailing quotes. Even after factoring in appropriate holding company discounts, the net contribution of this digital asset ranges reliably between Rs 700 and Rs 800 per share. The broader market has yet to fully price in the complete intrinsic value of other subsidiary operations, leaving Reliance Industries visibly undervalued relative to its combined sum-of-the-parts enterprise value.
Technical Short Covering Catapults Price Momentum
In addition to fundamental cash-flow dynamics, technical market structures contributed substantially to the stock's swift surge. Prior to the breakout, Reliance shares had spent an extended duration consolidating within a narrow, range-bound pricing channel. A subsequent downward retracement dragged quotes down toward the Rs 1,150 price territory. During this prolonged period of price weakness, various speculative market participants built significant short positions anticipating continued downside.
Once the shares caught strong fundamental bids on the back of resilient refining spreads and landmark quarterly performance, bearish traders faced sharp mark-to-market losses. To restrict further portfolio damage, market participants rushed to purchase shares in the open market to liquidate their bearish exposure, a technical mechanism recognized as short covering. This rapid forced buying collided with fresh investor accumulation, providing the decisive technical tailwind that propelled the stock over 11 percent higher in a single session.
