Over the past several days, Ethereum (ETH) has experienced a slight resurgence in bullish dominance, breaking away from an extended period of bearish pressure. Despite recording nearly a 10% gain since the month began, the actual buying pressure remains relatively subdued, indicating that the recovery is fragile. On-chain activity suggests that while bulls are back in the game, their participation is occurring at a modest pace.
Investor Profitability and Sentiment
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric has shown a slight improvement, shifting from -0.46 to -0.30. This suggests that recent price appreciation has eased the losses for many investors, though their holdings remain largely underwater. For these portfolios to return to a profitable state, significantly stronger buying pressure and a more pronounced price rally would be required.
Whale and Retail Wallet Dynamics
Activity among 'whales'—wallets holding between 10K and 100K ETH—saw inflows of approximately 100K ETH over the past week. However, this has not resulted in a significant shift in their balances over a three-week timeframe. Similarly, retail wallets holding between 100 and 10K ETH have displayed negligible changes in their holdings during the same period, suggesting that retail sentiment has yet to shift toward aggressive accumulation.
ETH ETF Performance and Institutional Demand
A positive sign has emerged from US spot ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs). According to data from SoSoValue, these funds have recorded four consecutive days of net inflows for the first time since early May. The total inflow over these four days reached $91.5 million, yet this amount has not been sufficient to trigger a major upward breakout. A comparable trend is visible in the Coinbase Premium Index, which reflects the sentiment of US investors. The index has climbed from a low of -0.169 to -0.076, signaling that while US demand has shown improvement, it remains weak on an absolute basis. Historical data suggests that both the Coinbase Premium Index and spot ETH ETF inflows need to sustain higher levels to fuel a substantial price surge. Recent market volatility led to $61.6 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, with $51.5 million coming from long positions.
Technical Outlook and Key Levels
As of 2026-07-09, the live price of Ethereum sits at $1,735. The asset continues to hold a near-term bearish bias, trading below its 50-day EMA of $1,801 and its 100-day EMA of $1,965. Price action is currently clinging near the 20-day EMA support at $1,712. Momentum indicators are cooling, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 51, reflecting a neutral stance. On the downside, immediate support is found near the 20-day EMA at $1,712, with more significant technical floors waiting near $1,511. On the topside, the 50-day EMA at $1,801 acts as a cluster for resistance. A sustained move above this area would be necessary to clear the path toward $1,909 and beyond.
Broader Crypto Market Context
The broader cryptocurrency market remains under pressure. Ripple (XRP) continues to face heavy selling, trading below $1.10 as it records four straight days of declines. Bitcoin (BTC) has slipped below the $62,000 threshold, increasing downside risks. Furthermore, Solana (Solana) has dropped 3% on Wednesday following a failed trendline breakout, and Hyperliquid (HYPE) has slipped below $70. Geopolitical tensions and a low risk-appetite among market participants continue to act as a drag on the digital asset space.
