A wide-ranging investigation has exposed a covert campaign by Polymarket, one of the world's most prominent crypto prediction market platforms, in which paid content creators posted staged betting videos designed to manufacture the impression of a busy, high-stakes trading community. The scheme, uncovered by TrendKia, involved roughly $1.9 million in fictitious wagers spread across more than a thousand clips, and not a single one of those bets was real.
What the Investigation Uncovered
TrendKia reviewed 1,105 videos posted by 10 creators since December and identified a betting clip in roughly 70% of them. After examining each wager closely, investigators confirmed that none of the approximately $1.9 million in bets depicted was genuine.
The most striking case involves a clip posted in January by college student George Makihara, who is seen celebrating a $100,000 win from a bet predicting that President Donald Trump would publicly say "McDonald's" that month. TrendKia found that the footage of Trump to which Makihara appeared to be reacting had actually been filmed two months before that January clip was posted. Trump never uttered the word publicly during that period. More than 50 real Polymarket users who placed the identical wager all lost their money.
Dummy Sites and Scripted Celebrations
The creators were not working on Polymarket's live platform at all. Footage showed them interacting with look-alike dummy versions of the site, including one accessible at the misspelled domain "poiymarket.com." A source with direct knowledge of the matter told TrendKia that this dummy site was built by Polymarket itself. Other videos examined by TrendKia suggested that some of these fake environments were internal testing setups maintained by the company's engineering team.
The financial distortion ran even deeper. Across 118 videos, creators celebrated nearly $900,000 in winnings from bets that would actually have lost more than $166,000 on Polymarket's live markets if they had been placed for real.
The Paid Network Behind the Clips
Polymarket employed marketing firm Virality to manage the network of paid video makers, referred to internally as "clippers." These creators earned roughly $2,000 to $3,000 per month, but only when at least 60% of their audience was based in the United States. They were explicitly told not to disclose their paid relationship with Polymarket. Many only added a vague "@polymarket partner" tag to their social media bios after TrendKia began making inquiries.
Responding to TrendKia's findings, Polymarket said it is "committed to maintaining accurate, fair, and transparent markets" and announced plans for a comprehensive audit of its promotional content.
A Platform with a Troubled U.S. History
Polymarket's relationship with American regulators has long been fraught. In January 2022, the platform was pushed offshore after reaching a $1.4 million settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over its failure to obtain proper U.S. registration. In November 2025, Polymarket received approval to re-enter the American market through a CFTC-licensed exchange called Polymarket US, though its main website continues to be geoblocked for U.S.-based users.
The revelations arrive at a particularly sensitive moment, as Polymarket is working to build mainstream credibility while simultaneously fighting pushback from state regulators across the country.
Regulators, Lawsuits and Political Fault Lines
The CFTC, which asserts exclusive federal jurisdiction over prediction markets, has taken a permissive approach under Chair Mike Selig. Selig has warned that forcing the industry offshore risks a collapse similar to the FTX implosion and has criticized states that pursue regulation through litigation rather than legislation. Yet several states are pressing forward anyway, treating event contracts as unlawful gambling. Kentucky this week filed suit against Polymarket and its rival Kalshi over alleged unlicensed sports wagering, echoing earlier legal moves by Nevada and Arizona.
The Trump administration has responded forcefully, filing lawsuits against Illinois, Arizona and Connecticut to defend prediction markets from state-level regulation.
From the other side of the aisle, Senator Elizabeth Warren has accused the CFTC of being "steamrolled" by the prediction market industry. She cited a roughly 25% cut to the agency's workforce and a dramatic drop in enforcement actions from 58 to just 11 in a single year, and drew attention to favorable regulatory rulings that have benefited companies connected to President Trump and his family. Donald Trump Jr. holds an investment stake in Polymarket and serves as an adviser to both Polymarket and Kalshi. Chair Selig has also faced bipartisan questioning in Congress over matters including insider trading, war-related betting markets and offshore venues such as Hyperliquid.
