For a while now, one of the loudest claims in crypto has been that Bitcoin has finally outgrown its boom-and-bust rhythm. 21Shares, a crypto investment firm and ETF issuer, was firmly in that camp, telling investors late last year that 2026 could be the moment the famous four-year cycle was finally laid to rest. Now, with Bitcoin sliding under $60,000 for the second time this month, the firm has walked that call back.
In its latest "State of the Market" report, the firm wrote: "Heading into 2026, we believed that Bitcoin's four-year cycle could be finished. Six months in, we have to be honest: price action still looks familiar."
A pattern that bent, not broke
The four-year cycle is a long-running trading pattern in which Bitcoin tends to peak and then bottom out following the quadrennial halving of its mining reward. The firm argues that while this pattern may not have broken, the market has clearly bent, which is why it says its "thesis is not entirely wrong."
"Market structure has clearly changed: ETF ownership is increasingly institutional and the current drawdown of roughly 50% remains far milder than the 80%+ bear markets of prior cycles," 21Shares wrote.
How far Bitcoin has fallen
As things stand, Bitcoin is down 52% from its all-time high of $126,080, recently changing hands at $59,781 on Wednesday. Even at that level it is holding above its on-chain cost basis of $54,000, according to Glassnode data, a sign that the market has not surrendered to outright capitulation. As Bitcoin slid toward $60,000, shares of Strategy also crashed below $100.
The ETF money that never showed up
Bitcoin ETFs have helped soften the cycle's dynamics, but they have not pulled in the kind of investment the firm expected this year. Alongside its cycle-breaking call, the firm had anticipated that crypto ETFs would push toward $400 billion in assets under management during 2026. Yet through six months, more money has actually left crypto ETFs than has entered, dragging both Bitcoin and Ethereum down from their record highs.
CoinGlass data shows that nearly $3 billion left crypto ETFs over the last quarter, and crypto ETFs as a group are down by close to $5 billion since the start of the year.
Predictions that missed, and one that's on track
Several of the firm's other big breakout calls have fallen short too. Those included a jump to a $1 trillion stablecoin market cap, $300 billion in DeFi total value locked (TVL), and $250 billion in assets under management for crypto treasury firms (DATs). All three ran into lingering regulatory uncertainty, repeated DeFi exploits, and falling crypto prices.
One forecast, however, is still very much alive. The firm expected prediction market trading volumes to clear $100 billion this year, and led by Polymarket and Kalshi, that target looks well within reach. Figures show prediction market platforms had already done more than $57.5 billion in volume by the end of May, comfortably ahead of the pace needed to blow past the mark.
