Shares of Adani Power experienced positive momentum during Thursday's intraday trading session following the release of a bullish research report by Motilal Oswal. The domestic brokerage initiated coverage on the thermal power stock with a 'Buy' rating, projecting significant upside driven by the company's aggressive capacity expansion pipeline, solid execution track record in turning around distressed power assets, and potential future upside from its foray into nuclear energy.
Brokerage Valuation Framework and Target Price Analysis
Motilal Oswal assigned a target price of Rs 250 per share to Adani Power. The brokerage valued the enterprise at 16x FY29E EBITDA, while adding INR 1 per share to account for the company's investment portfolio. Adjusting the combined valuation figure for net corporate debt yields the final price target of Rs 250 per share.
At current market levels, Adani Power trades at an enterprise value to EBITDA multiple of 13.8x based on FY29 estimates (FY29E EV/EBITDA). Motilal Oswal projects healthy financial growth trajectories over the forecast period, estimating an EBITDA compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21 percent from FY26 to FY29. Profit after tax (PAT) is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9 percent across the same timeframe.
Capacity Expansion Plans and Market Leadership
Adani Power stands as India's largest private thermal power producer, with operational capacity reaching nearly 18 gigawatts (GW) in the first quarter of financial year 2026-27 (Q1 FY27). Upon reaching this scale, the firm will control 24 percent of India's total private coal and lignite-based generation capacity and 8 percent of the nation's aggregate thermal capacity.
To support growing electricity demand, the power producer has outlined a clear capacity addition schedule. According to the research report, Adani Power plans to commission 1.3 GW of capacity in FY27, followed by 1.6 GW in FY28, and a substantial 3.2 GW addition in FY29. This progressive build-out will add 6.1 GW of thermal power to its portfolio over the three-year horizon.
Industry Landscape and Favorable Competitive Dynamics
The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has outlined an 86 GW pipeline for thermal capacity expansion across India. Motilal Oswal notes that Adani Power is positioned to emerge as a primary beneficiary of this build-out due to benign competitive pressures in the non-regulated thermal market.
State-run giant NTPC predominantly restricts its participation to regulated tariff-linked power projects. Among private peers, Tata Power has shifted its strategic focus heavily toward renewable energy projects, whereas JSW Energy is already managing a full pipeline of thermal and renewable commitments. This competitive landscape provides Adani Power with unique headroom to secure upcoming generation contracts.
Stock Price Action and Valuation Snapshot
During morning trades on Thursday at 10:14 am, Adani Power shares traded 0.99 percent higher at Rs 209.30 on the BSE, bringing the company's overall market capitalization to Rs 4,03,628.66 crore.
The stock recorded an intraday high of Rs 211.35 per share against an intraday low of Rs 208.50 per share. The positive price movement reflects investor confidence in the company's long-term earnings potential and capacity expansion roadmap.
