The mood across crypto prediction markets has turned sharply pessimistic, with traders now betting that Bitcoin and Ethereum still have further to fall before any meaningful recovery takes hold. The near-term targets they are pricing in are stark: roughly $55,000 for Bitcoin and $1,500 for Ethereum.
On Myriad, a prediction market platform, traders put the odds of Bitcoin sliding to $55,000 before climbing back to $80,000 at 77%. For Ethereum, the odds of a drop to $1,500 arriving before a jump to $3,000 sit even higher, at 88%, as a broad sell-off gripped markets on Thursday.
A Month of Mounting Fear
This gloom has been building steadily. Over the past month, the odds on Myriad of Bitcoin tumbling to $55,000 have surged by 44%. Bitcoin itself has dropped to $59,511, down around 1% over the last 24 hours and roughly 23% across the past month of trading. Earlier on Thursday it briefly slipped to nearly $58,000, its weakest level since 2024.
Strategy and STRC at the Center of the Storm
The pain is spilling into traditional equity markets too. Shares of Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, have fallen even harder, shedding nearly 7% since Thursday's open to trade around $88. Over the past month the stock has lost close to 45%.
The bigger worry is STRC, Strategy's preferred equity offering that is meant to hover near a par value of $100. It is now down 22% over the month and recently changed hands near $77. Shortly after the opening bell on Thursday, STRC sank to an all-time low of $73.62.
"On a short-term basis, STRC is the tail wagging the Bitcoin dog," said Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan.
"While there are also macro factors at work, rising concerns about inflation, worries about rate hikes, etc., the market can't keep its eyes off STRC trading in the $70s," Hougan added. "It's worried Strategy will enter some kind of death spiral and be forced to sell Bitcoin. This pressure will likely continue until Strategy clarifies how it plans to deal with the issue."
With those fears now baked into prices, analysts suggest the company's cleanest way out is to strengthen its cash reserves. A bigger cushion would give it more room to keep up dividend payments and, in turn, calm nervous investors.
Ethereum Caught in the Crossfire
The second-largest crypto asset has not escaped the rout. Ethereum has slid to $1,576, a 2.6% fall over 24 hours that deepens a plunge of more than 25% over the past 30 days. At that level, ETH sits just 5.2% above the $1,500 resolution mark on Myriad. According to Hougan, Ethereum is "mostly caught in the crossfire," suffering as "collateral damage" from the STRC concerns rather than troubles of its own.
Longer-Term Bets Stay Grim
The bearishness is not confined to the next few days. On Kalshi, markets asking how low Bitcoin and Ethereum could go during 2026 give Bitcoin a 36% chance of falling below $40,000 and Ethereum a 34% chance of dropping under $1,000.
The retreat looks even steeper when measured from the peaks. Bitcoin is now nearly 53% below its all-time high of $126,080, set last October, while Ethereum has fallen more than 68% from its record of $4,946 reached last August.
