At the 2026-09-11 close-bell reading, USD/JPY stood at 153.76, with the previous close at 153.57 and a modest 0.12% gain. The more important move happened earlier: the pair jumped above 154.50 immediately after the US inflation release, then surrendered that advance within hours as the Yen recovered.
This reversal left the currency pair near the bottom portion of its recent range after a steep retreat from the mid-155s during the week. The Dollar's first response to inflation data proved short-lived, while the Yen regained strength.
Japanese price data and BOJ expectations lifted the Yen
Higher Japanese PPI figures encouraged a more hawkish reassessment of the Bank of Japan and supplied fresh support for the Yen. During the Asian session, USD/JPY stayed on the weaker side toward 154.00. The Dollar retained its gains from the previous session while traders waited for the new American inflation numbers, which kept the fall from going further.
The prospect of a rate increase by the Bank of Japan next week remained an important source of support for the Yen. That outlook helped the currency absorb the Dollar's initial inflation reaction and kept USD/JPY under pressure even after the early spike.
US inflation data gave traders two signals
The United States (US) Consumer Price Index was 3.4% year on year in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The reading was unchanged from July's 3.4% and matched market expectations. On a monthly basis, prices advanced 0.4%, a clear acceleration from the 0.1% increase recorded one month earlier.
The core CPI figure, which removes food and energy, climbed 0.3% for the month and came in above the 0.2% forecast. The annual core rate, however, slipped to 2.4% from 2.5%. That combination gave the Dollar an early lift but also limited the durability of the move, because persistent monthly pressure was paired with easing annual core inflation.
Traders therefore faced a mixed picture rather than a simple hot-inflation story. The 0.4% monthly gain and 0.3% core monthly increase pointed to continued price pressure, while the decline in annual core inflation from 2.5% to 2.4% reduced the case for a stronger Dollar reaction. The result was a quick spike that failed to become a sustained trend.
Live indicators show the larger downtrend is intact
Live technical data placed USD/JPY below the 20-day EMA at 157.16, the 50-day EMA at 158.80 and the 200-day EMA at 157.70. The pair was also under the 50-day SMA at 159.84 and the 200-day SMA at 158.41, so the long-term trend remained negative. EMA50 is above EMA200, which the live series labels a golden cross, but the price has not confirmed a broader reversal.
The 14-period RSI stood at 27, inside oversold territory. MACD was -1.58 against a -1.01 signal, with a -0.56 histogram, leaving momentum on the bearish side. ADX(14) reached 48, showing a market with a defined trend, while the stochastic fast line was 12 and the signal line was 9.
These readings come from the 2026-09-11 live market data and describe the close-bell session. ATR(14) was 1.55, which serves as the daily volatility estimate and the stop-loss buffer.
- Bollinger bands: Bollinger(20,2) spanned 153.14 to 162.52, with a midpoint of 157.83. The price stayed inside the bands but well below the midpoint.
- Key levels: The pivot was 153.87, followed by R1 at 154.51 and R2 at 155.25. S1 was 153.12 and S2 was 152.49, with 20-day support near 152.90 and resistance near 160.38.
- Range and volume: The 52-week range ran from 146.61 to 163.98. Volume was 1.00x the 20-day average.
An oversold RSI can warn that selling has become stretched, but it does not by itself confirm a bottom. With MACD still bearish and price below every listed moving average, any recovery would initially look corrective. A loss of support could extend the decline, while a sustained break above resistance would be required to reduce selling pressure.
Other markets reflected the same uncertainty
In Friday's Asian trading, AUD/USD found stability around the middle of the 0.7100 area. The pair halted the previous day's steep slide, which had reached a low not seen in more than one week. Thursday's August PPI reading renewed expectations for a Fed rate increase and lifted the US Dollar, putting pressure on the Australian currency.
Expectations of a tougher stance from the RBA limited the Aussie's losses. At the same time, traders favoring the US Dollar waited for the American consumer inflation figures before placing new bets.
Gold recovered on Friday and posted solid gains, bringing the $4,440 per troy ounce level back into focus. It also erased Thursday's decline as the Dollar moved between advances and retreats near the week's end.
What traders will watch next
The immediate test is whether USD/JPY can defend 153.12 and recover the 153.87 pivot. A move above 154.51 would challenge the first resistance, while 155.25 and 160.38 remain larger ceilings. On the downside, 152.90 and 152.49 are the next support zones.
The next move will depend on how Bank of Japan expectations develop, how the Dollar reacts after the inflation release and whether the oversold technical picture triggers a rebound. Until price climbs back above the main moving averages, the broader setup remains cautious.
