Sunday's Wimbledon fourth round will pit Aryna Sabalenka against Naomi Osaka for the fourth time in barely three months, turning a rivalry that once went completely dormant for eight years into the most talked-about storyline of this year's grass-court season. Both women arrive at SW19 with four Grand Slam titles apiece, both have sat at the top of the world rankings at various points, and both built their reputations by hammering the ball on hard courts before either had to learn the tricks of grass. Yet the routes that got them here could hardly be more different, one player peaked early and then had to watch the other catch up over several seasons, while the other took years, a career break and motherhood to find her form again. What makes Sunday's clash so compelling is that this is already the fourth time the two have shared a court in 2026 alone, after meeting on hard courts, on clay and now, for the first time in this stretch, on the grass that has troubled them both throughout their careers.
A Shared Path to the Top
Sabalenka and Osaka broke through on the WTA Tour at almost the same time, both were 20 years old and rising fast when they first shared a court at the 2018 US Open. That match, a fourth-round contest in New York, ended 6-3 2-6 6-4 in Osaka's favour, and both players now describe it as a genuine turning point in their careers. "I felt like we both were kind of upcoming, the next generation," Sabalenka said this week. "When she won that match, I had a feeling she is going to win a Slam." Sabalenka was not just being generous in hindsight, she had actually been a break up in the deciding set of that very match before Osaka clawed her way back to close it out.
The New York Beginning That Changed Everything
Sabalenka's instinct proved right almost immediately. Five days after beating her, Osaka went on to defeat Serena Williams in the final and became the first player from Japan to win a Grand Slam singles title. Osaka broke down in tears after the win over Sabalenka that carried her into that first major quarter-final, a sign of just how much the run meant to her at the time, coming as it did against a fast-rising rival rather than an established name. Over the following 28 months, Osaka added three more Grand Slam titles to her collection, cementing herself as one of the dominant players of that period. Sabalenka, by contrast, claimed none in that stretch, and the two players' careers began to pull apart in very different directions from that point onward.
Diverging Roads
Osaka stepped away from the sport in 2021 to focus on her mental health, and then took a 15-month maternity leave after the birth of her daughter, Shai, in July 2023. It was during that lengthy absence that Sabalenka finally had her own breakthrough, winning the 2023 Australian Open for her first Grand Slam title, a result that had felt overdue given how long she had been knocking on the door of a major final. "Obviously we have a different story," Sabalenka said after her third-round win over Jelena Ostapenko at this year's Wimbledon. "She went through different things. I went through different things. I feel like we both were completely different players and people." Osaka may have won that first meeting back in 2018, but everything since has gone Sabalenka's way, she has won every single match the pair have played against each other in 2026.
2026: Sabalenka's Hat-trick
The two have already crossed paths three times this year before Sunday's Wimbledon clash, and each meeting has told its own story. At Indian Wells in March, Sabalenka delivered a clinical serving display to win 6-2 6-4 in just 80 minutes, striking eight aces without a single double fault and saving both break points she faced on her way to lifting the trophy there. Osaka pushed her far harder on the clay in Madrid, dominating a first-set tie-break and moving a break ahead in the second set, only for Sabalenka to lift her level and battle back to win regardless. Then, at last month's French Open, it was Sabalenka's serve that again proved decisive, Osaka landed just 53% of her first serves and was broken on four occasions, while Sabalenka won 83% of the points behind her own first serve, helped along by 12 aces. "It's been a great rivalry. Every time I'm enjoying playing her, it's a battle, it's high-level matches. Super excited to play her," Sabalenka said. Osaka, for her part, said she has taken something away from each of their encounters. "She's the number one player in the world," Osaka said. "If there is someone I had to lose to, I would pick that ranking position."
Now, Wimbledon's Grass Awaits
Five weeks on from the French Open, the pair meet again, this time at Wimbledon, on a surface that has given both of them trouble across their careers so far. Between them, Sabalenka and Osaka have won 31 WTA Tour titles, and not a single one of those has come on grass, a striking gap given how many trophies they have collected elsewhere. Osaka reached the fourth round at SW19 for the very first time in her career after thrashing Daria Kasatkina on Friday, continuing what has been a genuinely positive grass-court season for the 28-year-old. She reached her first-ever final on the surface at last month's Bad Homburg Open, although that run ended when she was forced to retire injured at the start of the second set against Karolina Muchova.
The Serve That's Transformed Osaka's Grass Game
One of the clearest reasons behind Osaka's improved form on grass is a noticeable jump in her average first-serve speed, up from 105mph at Wimbledon last year to 109mph this year. The extra pace has not only made her serve more of a weapon in its own right, it has allowed her to take the ball early on the forehand side and dictate rallies with her flat, powerful groundstrokes rather than being pushed onto the back foot. "I've been doing really well on grass this year. My confidence is pretty high," Osaka said. "I don't fear it too much any more. When I was younger I slipped pretty badly and ever since then I was scared of moving on grass. It's taken a long time to get comfortable but I would say I am at that point now."
Sabalenka's Unfinished Business at Wimbledon
Sabalenka has generally had more success at the All England Club than Osaka, yet Wimbledon remains the only Grand Slam where she has never reached the final, a gap in her résumé she is clearly keen to close. This year, though, she has looked thoroughly at home on the grass, underlined by a straight-sets win over Ostapenko, herself a two-time Wimbledon champion, in which Sabalenka made just six unforced errors across the entire match. "The plan is to get better every day and do a little bit better than I usually do on this beautiful grass," Sabalenka said after that third-round victory. Sunday's fourth-round meeting will show whether that plan is enough to finally solve Osaka on the one surface that has so far eluded both of them, and whether Sabalenka can extend her unbeaten run over her old rival into a fourth straight meeting this year.
