Bitcoin hovers around $81,000 on Friday, recording a gain of over 4% so far this week. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs remain on track for a third consecutive week of net inflows, bringing in $812.26 million through Thursday. Market participants are now closely awaiting the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which could offer fresh clues regarding the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy path and determine the cryptocurrency's next directional move. Strong institutional demand continues to support the underlying bullish price action, with exchange-traded funds maintaining steady inflows. Meanwhile, traders have shifted their focus to Friday's macroeconomic data release to gauge the near-term trajectory of the leading digital asset.
Labor Market Data and Federal Reserve Policy
Traders are positioning themselves ahead of the next major market catalyst. Focus has pivoted firmly toward US macroeconomic indicators, particularly labor market health and its potential implications for central bank monetary policy. According to economic calendars, August Nonfarm Payrolls are scheduled for release on Friday at 12:30 GMT, with consensus estimates expecting a reading of 56k. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.1%, while annual wage growth is forecast to ease slightly to 3.0% from 3.2% previously. Ahead of the data drop, Governor Christopher Waller remarked on Thursday that he leans toward maintaining steady interest rates at the upcoming September 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, provided inflation readings contain no major surprises. Waller's commentary sparked an immediate decline in US Treasury yields and the US Dollar, providing a tailwind for risk-on assets. Bitcoin climbed more than 5% on Thursday and has since stabilized near the $81,000 mark. A stronger-than-expected employment print could revive expectations for a September rate hike, potentially boosting Treasury yields and the dollar while weighing on crypto prices. Conversely, a softer report could dampen rate hike odds, depressing yields and the dollar, thereby offering renewed support for a BTC rally.
Geopolitical Tensions and Inflation Risks
Persistent inflation risks stemming from elevated energy prices leave the door open for potential central bank tightening later this month. The ongoing conflict around the Strait of Hormuz has kept energy costs high throughout the week, renewing anxieties over broader inflationary pressures. In recent developments, Iran targeted US military installations in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates on Thursday. Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance noted that President Donald Trump retains a range of economic, military, diplomatic, and covert options to address Tehran. Adding to the geopolitical landscape, South Korea is reportedly preparing to deploy naval assets to safeguard freedom of navigation in the strategic Strait of Hormuz before the end of the year. These developments maintain an active geopolitical risk premium, supporting crude oil prices and the US Dollar while capping investor risk appetite and weighing on risk-sensitive assets like Bitcoin.
Institutional Inflows and Corporate Accumulation
Robust institutional interest has underpinned this week's price recovery. Data from SoSoValue indicates that spot ETFs are set to capture a third consecutive week of inflows, totaling $812.26 million through Thursday. This renewed corporate participation reflects escalating demand for digital assets and strengthens the medium-term price outlook. In corporate treasury updates, Michael Saylor announced on X on Monday that Strategy acquired 4,603 BTC for $370 million following weeks of inactivity, elevating total corporate holdings to 845,050 tokens. Additionally, the firm boosted its cash reserves by $29 million and repurchased $152 million of its preferred stock, bringing total reserves to $6.71 billion in USD assets with zero net leverage. This move signals a return to aggressive balance sheet accumulation following a summer liquidity consolidation phase. However, the firm's preferred stock continues to trade below its $100 par value, currently hovering near $97, though the company maintains a robust liquidity buffer covering approximately 39 months of dividend payments.
September Technical Outlook and Moving Averages
Bitcoin concluded August with gains of nearly 25%, marking its best monthly performance since November 2024 and securing back-to-back positive monthly returns. Nevertheless, historical seasonal trends suggest a more cautious historical backdrop for September, which posts average historical losses of -2.65%. The month begins under a cloud of macroeconomic uncertainty and escalating Middle East tensions. At the time of writing on Friday, Bitcoin trades at $80,799, sitting just above its 50-week Simple Moving Average of $80,382. A sustained weekly close above this moving average could trigger an extension toward the 50% retracement level at $87,599, followed by the 100-week SMA at $89,175. Momentum indicators remain supportive, with the weekly Relative Strength Index holding comfortably above the neutral 50 threshold at 59, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence maintaining a bullish crossover established in mid-July. On the downside, crucial initial support rests near the psychological $70,000 threshold, while daily exponential moving averages clustered between $69,700 and $72,500 provide robust near-term structural support.
