OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong observe that the decisive win by Barisan Nasional in Johor strengthens political momentum for UMNO but keeps federal policy continuity intact. Consequently, the immediate impact on the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) is expected to be minimal. Barisan Nasional secured 48 out of 56 seats, improving on their previous 40 seats, while Pakatan Harapan managed to retain only eight. While the victory was anticipated, it solidifies UMNO’s bargaining position within the federal unity government. The MYR faces two-way risks with bearish daily momentum; current support is identified between 4.0540 and 4.0320, while resistance lies at 4.0810 and 4.0980. Attention now pivots to the 1 August elections in Negeri Sembilan, where potential underperformance by Pakatan Harapan could introduce modest near-term volatility for the ringgit.
Global Market Shifts and Commodity Pressure
Financial markets have experienced a shaky start to the week as instability in the Middle East intensifies. The British Pound (GBP/USD) is under selling pressure, sliding toward fresh three-day lows near 1.3350 as the Greenback gains strength. Similarly, the EUR/USD pair has retreated to the 1.1380 region. Gold is also facing significant downward pressure, breaking below the key $4,000 per troy ounce mark. These moves are largely in response to the stronger US Dollar and mounting geopolitical fears.
Surge in Crude Oil Prices
Crude Oil (CL=F) prices have jumped by 10.64%, with the asset currently trading at $79.01 compared to the previous close of $71.41. This sharp rise is driven by escalations between the US and Iran in the Gulf region and reports that the Iranian regime has closed the Strait of Hormuz. Technical indicators show an underlying long-term uptrend, with the 14-day RSI at 53 and a bullish MACD histogram. The price remains within the Bollinger bands, with key technical support and resistance levels being monitored closely as the market absorbs the geopolitical shock. As noted in recent market analysis, 'Crude Oil finds a toll booth where its ceasefire used to be.' Investors are now bracing for upcoming US CPI data and the testimony by Chair Warsh, which are expected to provide further clarity on the path forward for global interest rates and risk appetite.
