The bottom line of this entire political upheaval is that just as Donald Trump suffered a defeat, Benjamin Netanyahu's tenure as Prime Minister is also effectively coming to an end, pushed out largely by the Arab citizens of Israel. This raises a fundamental question: who are these Arab citizens in Israel who possess the right to vote? Israel is widely known as a nation for Jews, so who constitutes this twenty percent Arab population? Are they residents of Gaza and the West Bank? The answer is no, they are not. Those populations cannot vote in Israeli elections. Therefore, understanding who these citizens actually are requires a closer look at the broader political landscape, starting with the fact that the Israeli parliament consists of 120 seats, which were contested by roughly three major political blocs during the recent elections.
The Parliamentary Math and Three Blocs
The public is now well aware that the 120 seats in the Israeli parliament were divided among three primary factions. The first was Netanyahu's coalition, which is composed exclusively of Jewish parties. The second was the coalition led by Gadi Eisenkot, also consisting of Jewish parties. The third bloc comprised Arab parties. Securing a government required a majority of 61 seats, a threshold none of the factions reached independently. Among the Jewish parties, Netanyahu's side secured 53 seats, Gadi Eisenkot's side garnered 48 seats, and the remaining 19 seats went to the Arab parties. With no group hitting the 61-seat mark, the path forward demanded strategic alliances.
Shifting Alliances and Post-War Realities
The options were clear: either the two Jewish factions unite to form a government based on Jewish solidarity, or Gadi Eisenkot's side secures the support of the Arab parties to form a coalition. The complication arose because, in the wake of the Hamas attacks from three years prior, Jewish parties were reluctant to appear dependent on the support of Arab parties. However, when Trump's party lost power in the United States, a clear signal was sent to the Israeli Jewish parties. Although the opposing Democratic Party in the US continues to support Israel broadly, it has made it clear it does not support Netanyahu. Figures within Trump's camp even began arguing that Netanyahu dragged Trump into the Iran war, which ultimately contributed to his downfall. Recognizing that Israel cannot function without American support, Jewish parties realized they could no longer keep Netanyahu as Prime Minister. Simultaneously, Arab parties recognized a rare opportunity to oust Netanyahu and inclined toward supporting Gadi Eisenkot. Combined, Eisenkot's 48 seats and the 19 seats from the Arab parties bring a total of 67 out of 120 lawmakers ready to back Eisenkot for the premiership.
Geography and the Status of Territories
While Netanyahu's political exit appears imminent, the general public still seeks clarity on who these internal Arab voters are who handed 19 seats to Arab parties and effectively sidelined Netanyahu. To understand this, one must examine the creation and geography of Israel. Over the past three years of conflict, the public has grown familiar with the map of Israel, bordered by the Mediterranean Sea to the west, Lebanon to the north, Syria and Jordan to the east, and Egypt to the south. Within Israel proper lie two distinct territories: the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. These areas are located inside Israel geographically, yet they are not officially part of Israel.
The Palestinian Authority and the Voters
Surrounded by Israel yet excluded from its political body, the Arabs living in these territories did not participate in these elections. These regions are governed by the Palestinian Authority, even though overall control remains in the hands of Israel. Back in 2006, Hamas emerged victorious in the elections held under the Palestinian Authority. Consequently, the Arabs residing in the West Bank and Gaza vote within their own governance structures. This leads back to the pivotal question: who votes for Israel's Arab parties? The answer lies in the Arab citizens who hold legal residency and voting rights inside Israel proper.
Historical Roots and the British Mandate
To grasp the broader context, one must understand how Israel was established. This region is the historical birthplace of Judaism, preceding both Christianity and Islam by many centuries. Following the Roman conquest, Jews faced severe persecution and were expelled, scattering across various parts of Europe. Nevertheless, Israel remained perpetually enshrined in their traditions as their rightful ancestral homeland. Eventually, the entire Arab region fell under the rule of the Ottoman Empire, placing this territory under Turkish administration. The area came to be known as Palestine and largely consisted of barren desert. The Ottoman rulers paid little attention to the region, which was populated by various nomadic Arab tribes. Following the defeat of the Ottomans in World War I, the territory of Palestine came under British administration. In 1917, the British government declared that land in this barren region would be provided for Jews from around the world seeking settlement amid rising persecution and expulsions globally. Jewish families began migrating and settling under British rule.
The Holocaust and Partition Proposals
Subsequently, Hitler unleashed severe persecution against Jews in Germany, prompting mass expulsions across Europe. Many refugees fled and settled in the barren deserts of Palestine. World War II concluded with Hitler's defeat, but tensions steadily mounted between the Jewish settlers and the local Arab population. Britain adopted a familiar playbook, mirroring its approach in India before partition by announcing its withdrawal and proposing the creation of two separate states in Palestine: one for Jews and one for Arabs.
United Nations Proposals and the Present Day
This two-state proposal was formally presented to the United Nations. While the Jewish leadership accepted the plan, the Arab leadership rejected it entirely, setting off decades of conflict. Today, those historical dynamics culminate in a pivotal electoral stalemate where approximately two million Arab citizens living within Israel hold the balance of power, effectively determining the political fate of Benjamin Netanyahu.
