As Ganpati, Navratri and Diwali approach, households picking up their favourite mithai this year could feel a sharper pinch, with sweetmakers preparing to raise retail prices by as much as 10-15%. The move comes right as festive demand for boxes of sweets starts to climb across the country.
Sugar emerges as the biggest worry
Sugar has become the single biggest headache for the sweets trade. Retail sugar prices have already crossed Rs 65 per kg in some Maharashtra markets. Industry participants say sugar prices have jumped by more than 35% in recent weeks amid tighter supplies and stronger seasonal demand, arriving just as confectioners begin stocking up for the festive rush. The government has said ex-mill sugar prices have actually declined and that this relief could gradually reach retail markets, but any such benefit is expected to filter through slowly rather than immediately.
Why sugar supply has tightened
Sugar production this season is estimated at around 306 lakh tonnes, lower than earlier expectations. On top of that, nearly 30 lakh tonnes of sugar has been diverted towards ethanol production. That diversion supports the country's fuel-blending objectives, but when overall production is already under pressure, it further shrinks the quantity of sugar left for direct food consumption, adding to the squeeze right when the sweets industry needs supply the most.
Milk price hikes pile on the pressure
Alongside sugar, rising milk prices have added to the industry's troubles, particularly in Maharashtra. The Mumbai Milk Producers Association raised loose milk prices by Rs 9 per litre effective September 1. That increase feeds directly into milk-based sweets such as peda, barfi, kalakand, basundi and rasmalai. It also raises costs for sweets that rely heavily on ghee and paneer. Milk prices have reportedly gone up in other states too, including Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Gujarat, spreading the cost pressure well beyond just one region.
Other ingredients are adding up too
Sugar and milk are not the only inputs weighing on sweetmakers. Ghee, paneer, dry fruits, edible oils, packaging, electricity and fuel are all significant components of the cost of making and selling mithai. When several of these inputs get more expensive at the same time, sweetmakers are left with very little room to protect their margins without passing the extra cost on to customers at the counter.
Timing makes it harder for sweet shops
The timing of this cost surge is especially tough for the industry. Festive production has to begin well before the peak buying period, which means businesses often need to purchase large quantities of ingredients in advance. Any rise in input prices during that window quickly feeds through into the cost of the finished sweets, even before the festive rush has fully begun. That is why shoppers heading out for Ganpati, Navratri and Diwali this year should expect their mithai bill to already reflect these higher costs.
