Selling pressure across the cryptocurrency market deepened on Thursday, pushing the native token of Pi Network down below a persistent long-term downward trendline. Softening technical indicators combined with a steep drop in retail participation across derivatives markets have left PI trading around $0.0782. This weakness comes despite the fact that Pi Network is gearing up to transition its Mainnet to Protocol v28 on Friday, a major scheduled operational milestone that has so far failed to ignite bullish momentum.
Protocol v28 Upgrade and Infrastructure Realities
Pi Network has scheduled its Mainnet upgrade to Protocol v28 for Friday, following an active deployment on its testnet2 environment where the build has already been operational. Node operators across the ecosystem were instructed to finalize all required software upgrades prior to Tuesday to maintain synchronization. This v28 release continues the network's ongoing enhancements rooted in the Stellar consensus framework, focusing strictly on backend functionality.
The upgrade does not modify user account balances or alter existing mining mechanics. Upgrades of this nature are engineered primarily to strengthen developer tooling, protocol efficiency, and network stability rather than serve as direct catalysts for token valuation. Historical price performance following the v27 release and earlier protocol revisions demonstrated a similar pattern, where underlying code improvements did not translate into immediate market appreciation for the token.
Derivatives Markets Reveal Fading Trader Engagement
Despite the fast-approaching protocol deployment, Pi Network is experiencing an undeniable decline in retail demand. Data compiled by Blockworks shows that Open Interest in PI futures contracts fell to $8.23 million on Thursday, marking a severe contraction from the $49.03 million recorded in the prior week. This sharp drop highlights a substantial reduction in the total notional value of active derivative contracts and reflects waning speculative involvement.
Concurrently, the funding rate for PI futures contracts remains marginally positive at 0.000050%. The combination of a minuscule positive funding rate and drastically depleted Open Interest points toward a mixed-to-bearish mindset among market participants. Traders appear reluctant to build aggressive long positions heading into the technical event, signaling widespread caution across the board.
Technical Indicators Point to Downside Risks
On the daily timeframe, PI continues to face significant overhead resistance and downward momentum. Trading at $0.0782, the asset remains suppressed beneath both its 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $0.0877 and its 200-day Exponential Moving Average at $0.1196. Sustained price action below these major moving averages reinforces a long-term bearish structure.
The price also remains capped under the descending trendline break level located at $0.0860, a barrier formed by connecting the peak prices recorded on June 20 and August 22. PI is presently testing a breakdown below the preceding week's trough of $0.0774. A verified daily close under this threshold could expose the previous swing low at $0.0704, with any deeper extension risking a slide toward unprecedented record lows.
Momentum oscillators reflect persistent weakness without showing signs of sudden capitulation. The Relative Strength Index is lingering near 35, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator sits firmly within negative territory. The MACD line remains beneath its signal line alongside a marginally contracting bearish histogram, which implies a steady, grinding downward drift rather than an accelerating selloff.
Should an upside recovery materialize, initial resistance will be encountered at the descending trendline zone around $0.0860. This region is reinforced by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.0867, calculated between the swing points of $0.1349 and $0.0704, and the 50-day EMA at $0.0877. Any near-term relief rally is expected to encounter substantial friction at these hurdles.
Macroeconomic Data and Crypto Market Contagion
The struggles seen in Pi Network mirror a wider slump across the digital asset sector triggered by hotter-than-anticipated United States inflation figures. The latest release of the US Consumer Price Index showed an annual headline inflation rate of 3.7%, outpacing the projected consensus of 3.6% and reigniting concerns over sustained monetary tightening. Core inflation, which omits volatile food and energy costs, printed at 2.6%.
Following the inflation print, top crypto assets retreated almost immediately. Glassnode identified the area near $80,000 as the most critical watchpoint for Bitcoin as macroeconomic pressures mount. In the altcoin space, privacy token Zcash extended its previous day's decline of roughly 6% to trade firmly in the red. Ripple and Stellar also suffered notable downturns on Thursday, having depreciated by more than 7% and 11% respectively over the course of the week. Both XRP and XLM dropped beneath vital technical support lines, highlighting widespread fragility throughout the broader market.
