AUD/USD Price Analysis: Slips to 0.6970 After Failing to Clear 38.2% Fibonacci HurdleMarket
28 Jul 2026, 12:01 pm (15 days ago)· 0

AUD/USD Price Analysis: Slips to 0.6970 After Failing to Clear 38.2% Fibonacci Hurdle

The AUD/USD pair retreats to 0.6970 as geopolitical tensions and a strong US Dollar weigh on the Australian currency ahead of the FOMC meeting.

AUD/USDSMA20 SMA50 · RSI · MACD
Candles + SMA20/50 · RSI(14) · MACD(12,26,9) with buy/sell signals — live from Yahoo

Technical Analysis28 Jul 2026

Moving AveragesEMA 20 / 50 / 200

What it is

Exponential Moving Averages smooth price to reveal the trend over the short (20), medium (50) and long (200) term. Price above them and stacked upward is an uptrend; below them and stacked down is a downtrend.

Where it stands now

AUD/USD trades at 0.70 versus EMA20 0.70, EMA50 0.70, EMA200 0.69.

Possible move ahead

A close above EMA50 (0.70) opens upside; losing EMA200 (0.69) opens downside.

RSIRelative Strength Index (14)

What it is

RSI is a 0–100 momentum gauge of recent gains versus losses. Above 70 is overbought (stretched), below 30 oversold (beaten down), and 50 is the neutral line.

Where it stands now

AUD/USD's RSI is 49.

Possible move ahead

Watch a push above 60 or a slide under 40.

MACDMoving Avg Convergence/Divergence

What it is

MACD tracks the gap between a fast and a slow moving average; its signal line and histogram show momentum building or fading. The line above its signal is bullish, below is bearish.

Where it stands now

AUD/USD's MACD line is above its signal.

Possible move ahead

The next signal-line crossover is the trigger to watch.

The AUD/USD currency pair is facing renewed selling pressure as lingering geopolitical risks maintain a bullish undertone for the US Dollar. Optimism surrounding potential US-Iran diplomacy to resolve a five-month-old conflict faded following reports from Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq on Monday regarding drone attacks. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium alive and acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven Greenback, thereby exerting downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair. Nevertheless, traders remain hesitant to place aggressive directional bets ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC policy meeting commencing later today.

Technical Outlook and Moving Averages

Recent repeated failures to break past the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June downturn indicate that the recovery originating from the 200-day Simple Moving Average has lost momentum. Even so, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence histogram stays marginally positive while the MACD line remains above the signal line. This hints that bullish momentum persists, even though a neutral Relative Strength Index suggests only modest directional conviction.

Also read

Broader Market Movements Across Currencies and Commodities

Meanwhile, GBP/USD edged lower during Tuesday's Asian hours while remaining in positive territory around the 1.3290 level. The currency pair faces pressure as the US Dollar stabilizes due to market caution ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision on Wednesday. Similarly, EUR/USD consolidates near its monthly trough, trading around the mid-1.1300s during the European morning on Tuesday, pressured by persistent demand for the US Dollar. Gold maintains its offered tone during the Asian session on Tuesday, trading just below $4,050 and down 0.85% for the day following its failure to find acceptance above $4,100 in the previous session. Additionally, Ripple and Stellar remain under pressure after suffering losses of over 4% and 5% respectively on the prior day.

Questions & Answers

At what level is the AUD/USD pair currently trading?
The AUD/USD pair has slipped to around 0.6970 after failing to clear the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance level.
What is the main reason behind the US Dollar's strength?
Rising geopolitical tensions following drone attack reports in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq have boosted safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.
Which major event are traders currently awaiting?
Traders are awaiting the outcome of the crucial two-day FOMC policy meeting starting later today.
What do the technical indicators suggest about the market trend?
The MACD histogram remains marginally positive, while a neutral RSI indicates only modest directional conviction.

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