The Indian rupee is clinging to slender gains, helped by a retreat in crude oil prices and a subdued US Dollar, with the USD/INR pair grinding slowly higher near the 95.26 mark. A weaker dollar makes the greenback cheaper against other currencies, and that has given currencies like the rupee a little breathing room.
Dollar softens after wage data
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was trading a touch lower around 100.78. That followed a sharp slide of nearly 0.6% on Thursday from Wednesday's close, leaving the currency on the back foot. Fresh wage numbers did little to change the mood. Average Hourly Earnings, a closely watched gauge of pay growth, climbed 3.5% year-on-year, matching expectations and picking up from the previous 3.4% reading. Data like this feeds directly into the market's thinking about where interest rates go next.
Oil's retreat gives importers relief
The drop in energy costs is the bigger story for the rupee. The MCX crude oil contract due to expire on July 20 has settled into a 6,450 to 6,600 band after tumbling more than 20% through June. Prices look set to stay close to where they sat before the conflict in the Middle East, with Qatar pointing to "progress" in the indirect discussions between the United States and Iran. Live market readings on Friday put crude near $68.69, with a 14-day RSI around 29 that flags an oversold condition. For an economy like India that imports the bulk of the oil it burns, cheaper crude is a direct tailwind for the currency, easing the import bill, trimming the trade gap and taking pressure off the rupee.
Foreign investors trim their selling
Foreign Institutional Investors have stayed on the sell side through the first two trading sessions of July, pulling out stock worth ₹1,452.32 crore. The pace of that selling, though, has eased as oil prices have cooled, and attention is shifting toward earnings and business updates from India's financial services and consumption names. That slowdown in outflows is being read as a modest positive for the currency.
The USD/INR technical picture
On the charts, USD/INR near 95.26 carries a mild upward tilt as it holds above its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 94.93 and stays above the breakout from a Descending Triangle pattern. A breakout of that kind often points to room for further upside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting near 54 signals momentum that is gently positive without looking stretched.
Support and resistance to watch
On the way down, the first cushion sits at the 20-day EMA near 94.933, backed by the reclaimed downward trend-line zone around 94.764, with a firmer structural floor near 94.065. If the pair keeps defending the Descending Triangle breakout, it could stretch its climb toward the 96.00 handle.
How other currencies and gold are trading
Elsewhere in the currency market, GBP/USD was in positive territory on Friday, though its upside stalled below 1.3400 in the European session as the dollar's weakness deepened after a softer-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls print that trimmed bets on Fed rate hikes. EUR/USD was similarly firm around 1.1450 in European hours and looked set to post its first weekly gain in three weeks, again thanks to fading rate-hike expectations weighing on the greenback. Gold kept its bullish streak alive for a third day running, trading near a one-and-a-half-week high and on course for its first weekly advance in five weeks. Bulls are still waiting for a push beyond $4,200 before betting on an extension of the week's rebound from the lowest level since November 2025.
Crypto: Hyperliquid pushes higher
In crypto, Hyperliquid (HYPE) pushed above $66 and kept its longer-term uptrend intact, propped up by a rising 50-day EMA around $60. Near-term retail appetite has picked up, with Open Interest climbing about 5% over 24 hours and funding rates holding above zero, even as institutional interest has stayed quiet so far this week.
Fed in focus: minutes and Warsh
Looking ahead, the market's focus turns to next week's FOMC minutes for any hint of what might nudge a divided committee away from holding and toward hikes. The dot plot from the last meeting laid bare how split policymakers are on whether higher rates are justified, and with forward guidance being dialled down under Chair Kevin Warsh, it is unclear what exactly would rally broader support for tighter policy. Markets that gathered at Sintra hoping to decode the Fed's next step largely walked away with confirmation that Warsh intends to make those signals a good deal harder to read.
