The biggest event on this week's calendar is the European Central Bank (ECB), which hands down its interest rate decision on Thursday, quickly followed by the Federal Reserve's own announcement next week. That puts two of the world's most influential central banks back to back in the spotlight. According to Commerzbank's read of the situation, a rate hike this month can be confidently ruled out, so the real debate has shifted to what happens in September.
Oil's rebound changes the math
Bouncing crude oil prices have put another ECB rate hike firmly back in the frame for September, and markets have already fully priced it in at roughly +24 basis points. In other words, investors are treating the move as close to a done deal. Costlier oil feeds directly into inflation, which is why every jump in energy prices adds to the pressure on a central bank to keep tightening.
What to expect from Lagarde
ECB chief Lagarde is likely to strike a firm tone on inflation risks. Even so, she is unlikely to pre-commit to a September hike. The reason is straightforward: the situation remains in flux, and headwinds to growth are building. Against that backdrop, this week's data is expected to signal that a genuine economic recovery is still some way off.
Pressure on the pound and the euro
In the currency market, GBP/USD held steady above 1.3450 on Monday but struggled to gather any real bullish momentum. Traders are still assessing the fallout from weekend hostilities between the United States and Iran, tensions that have kept the US Dollar resilient against its rivals. The UK employment report on Tuesday will be the next focus.
EUR/USD, meanwhile, drifted within a tight channel below 1.1450 through the second half of Monday. With uncertainty hanging over the crisis in the Middle East, investors are reluctant to take large positions. The ECB's rate decision later in the week is set to be the deciding factor for the pair.
Gold steadies above $4,000
After suffering heavy losses the previous week, gold has found its footing and stabilised above $4,000. Rising geopolitical tensions tied to escalating military aggression in the Middle East, along with expectations of higher US interest rates, are both acting as a tailwind for the US Dollar. That strength in the greenback is capping the upside for the metal and keeping its gains in check.
Crude climbs again
Live figures show WTI crude oil trading at $84.71, up 1.78% from a previous close of $83.23. Over the past 52 weeks it has ranged between $54.98 and $119.48, and on the technical side its RSI (14) sits at 62. The advance is being driven by fears of supply disruption stemming from US-Iran tensions, with traders now awaiting the API report. That very rally loops back into inflation and, ultimately, into what central banks decide to do next.
Ethereum leads, but its base looks shaky
In the crypto market, Ethereum outperformed other top cryptocurrencies over the past week, showing it is gaining relative strength. Yet beneath the surface, key metrics suggest the rally remains fragile. Between last week and Wednesday, ETH posted double-digit gains and outpaced fellow majors Bitcoin, XRP and Solana, before the broader market began to correct on Thursday.
