Precious metal prices showed weakness in the domestic market as the Reserve Bank of India began its three-day monetary policy committee meeting. Trading activity on the Multi Commodity Exchange saw gold contracts sliding below the critical Rs 1.49 lakh per 10 grams threshold. Market participants remained cautious amid high global bond yields, a resilient US dollar, and domestic interest rate uncertainties.
Domestic Futures Performance And Silver Trends
On the MCX, gold was trading at Rs 1,49,600 per 10 grams, marking a decline of Rs 790 or 0.53 percent. Selling pressure emerged strongly during early morning deals, dragging the metal to an intraday low of Rs 1,48,850 per 10 grams and registering a fall of as much as Rs 1,540 on the day.
Later in the Monday session, MCX gold stood at Rs 1,49,150 per 10 grams, down by Rs 1,245. In contrast, silver displayed resilience, gaining Rs 173 to reach Rs 2,26,050 per kilogram. In the international spot market, bullion hovered near $4,135 per ounce after declining more than 3 percent in the preceding week and losing roughly 6 percent over the previous month.
US Macro Data And Impact Of Bond Yields
Bullion continues to balance conflicting macroeconomic developments. Recent employment statistics from the United States indicated slowing economic momentum, with non-farm payroll additions reaching only 29,000 compared to market expectations of 90,000. Concurrently, the unemployment rate ticked upward to 4.2 percent. These figures significantly reduced expectations of an October interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, dropping the implied probability to around 18 percent from nearly 70 percent earlier in the week.
However, this shift in monetary expectations has provided limited relief to bullion prices. US Treasury yields continue to trade around multi-decade peak levels, while the firm US dollar increases the financial cost of carrying a non-yielding asset like gold, restricting any sustained upside momentum.
Retail Spot Gold Prices In India
Physical gold prices across Indian retail counters remained broadly steady on Monday. Standard 24-carat gold was quoted at Rs 1,49,180 per 10 grams. Meanwhile, 22-carat jewelry gold stood at Rs 1,36,750 per 10 grams, and 18-carat gold traded at Rs 1,11,890 per 10 grams. The yellow metal has maintained a subdued trend through October so far, following a decline of nearly 3 percent across 24-carat, 22-carat, and 18-carat segments during September.
RBI Policy Review And Repo Rate Expectations
The Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy review is scheduled from October 5th to October 7th, with the final policy verdict set to be unveiled on Wednesday. The central bank has kept the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25 percent since December 2025. If the monetary authority opts for a hike on Wednesday, it would represent the first upward revision in 10 months.
With headline and underlying inflation picking up pace in recent months across a broader set of categories, market attention is heavily focused on the outcome. Analysts widely anticipate a 25 basis point hike, which would lift the policy repo rate from 5.25 percent to 5.50 percent. The central bank's assessment of persistent inflationary pressures alongside ongoing economic growth will remain central in establishing its future policy stance.
Technical Trading Range And Near-Term Triggers
From a market structure perspective, bullion prices appear positioned in a sideways consolidation phase. The commodity is expected to trade within a defined band, finding technical support at Rs 1,45,900 and encountering resistance at Rs 1,51,500.
The upcoming policy statement from the Federal Reserve in October represents the next decisive catalyst for bullion. Clear indications confirming the conclusion of the monetary tightening cycle, accompanied by falling yields, could push gold toward the Rs 1,51,500 resistance ceiling. Conversely, persistent hawkish messaging or an extension of the rally in bond yields could retest the downside support base at Rs 1,45,900.
