Maharashtra's political circles are abuzz with one question these days, which way will the two factions of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) eventually go. According to sources, talks over Sharad Pawar's NCP joining the Bharatiya Janata Party led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) have reached a serious stage, and a final call could come within the next 8 to 15 days.
Two formulas on the table
Two distinct paths are being weighed right now, both within the party and outside it. The first is a merger, bringing Ajit Pawar's NCP and Sharad Pawar's NCP back together before jointly entering the NDA. The second opens up if that merger does not materialise, in which case Sharad Pawar's outfit could join the alliance while keeping its separate identity, or simply extend support to the government from within or outside.
Push for a direct entry grows louder
Sources say most MLAs and MPs from the Sharad Pawar camp are batting for a direct entry into the alliance rather than waiting on a merger. Their argument is that a real share of power, both at the Centre and in the state, is what will actually strengthen the organisation, keep the cadre motivated and help the party expand going forward. If the party is limited to only backing the government from outside, these leaders believe it would gain little politically. That is reportedly why several MLAs and MPs have already begun reaching out to the BJP's central and state leadership on their own. Sources add that any delay in taking a call also raises the risk of a future split, which is why the sentiment for a direct NDA entry keeps gaining ground within the organisation.
A parallel rift inside Ajit Pawar's NCP
Things are far from settled inside Ajit Pawar's NCP either. One camp is built around Sunetra Pawar and Parth Pawar, while another is led by Praful Patel and Sunil Tatkare. Discontent over how Sunetra Pawar and Parth Pawar have been running things has grown since Sunetra Pawar was made national president following Ajit Pawar's death. Praful Patel and Sunil Tatkare reportedly feel sidelined and uneasy with the current arrangement. That discomfort surfaced when a letter sent to the Election Commission left out the names of Praful Patel, the working president, and Sunil Tatkare, the state president. An assurance to fix the omission followed the row, but sources claim nothing actually changed. A number of MLAs are also said to be unhappy with Parth Pawar's style of functioning, a grievance that finds an echo in the Praful Patel and Sunil Tatkare camp as well.
A cabinet reshuffle demand widens the gap
Sources say that if the Union Cabinet is expanded down the line, the Sunetra Pawar camp wants Parth Pawar made a minister in place of Praful Patel, a demand that has only added to the friction. Around the same time, a letter attributed to Sachinanand Singh called Sunetra Pawar's appointment illegal, and the Sunetra Pawar-Parth Pawar camp has pointed a finger directly at the Praful Patel and Sunil Tatkare group over it. The two also want Praful Patel to hold just one role, either in the organisation or in the government, not both. Praful Patel is said to be deeply unhappy over this demand as well.
Old allies drift back towards Sharad Pawar
Against this backdrop, meetings and contact between Praful Patel, Sunil Tatkare and Sharad Pawar have increased. Sources say the two leaders are working, along with a few MLAs, to bring the old undivided NCP back together, both to keep the organisation strong and to protect their own political standing.
Why Sunetra Pawar and Parth Pawar are resisting a merger
Sunetra Pawar and Parth Pawar, for their part, are not in favour of a merger. Their worry is that with Praful Patel and Sunil Tatkare already ranged against them, a merger that also brings in Supriya Sule and the Sharad Pawar camp's MLAs and MPs could see control of the organisation slip out of their hands altogether. That fear is what is driving their resistance. Supriya Sule has separately indicated that the merger idea has more or less run its course for now, since there has been no positive response from the other side, and she is not willing to compromise on her self-respect to force one through.
What the BJP is calculating
The BJP's preference is for both NCP factions to enter the NDA together rather than separately. If they stay apart, and factionalism persists inside Ajit Pawar's party, coordination between the state and the Centre could become difficult. There is also concern within the BJP that, with Ajit Pawar gone, it no longer has an equally effective secular face capable of cutting into the traditional vote banks of Congress and the opposition, which makes bringing in Sharad Pawar, Supriya Sule and their allies look politically rewarding. At the same time, the BJP is mindful that Ajit Pawar broke away from Sharad Pawar to back the NDA at a difficult moment, so isolating Sunetra Pawar and Parth Pawar entirely in his absence could send the wrong signal. That is why the party is trying to broker some common ground between the two camps.
If the merger falls through, what next
Should the two NCPs fail to agree on a merger, Sharad Pawar's party could still join the NDA while retaining its separate political identity, the option most MLAs and MPs are said to prefer, since they believe direct participation in power is what will keep the organisation, its workers and its growth intact. Efforts to bring Ajit Pawar's NCP around to this option are also underway. If even that does not work out, the last resort would be extending outside support to the NDA, backing key bills and major government decisions in Parliament and the state Assembly without formally joining the government. Another idea that did the rounds was for Sharad Pawar camp MLAs and MPs to join the NDA by aligning with Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena if the merger with Ajit Pawar's NCP does not happen, but sources say this suggestion found little backing, since Sharad Pawar, Supriya Sule and most of their MLAs and MPs feel their political outlook and style of working do not sit well with a direct tie-up with the Shiv Sena. For now, the biggest push remains towards merging the two NCPs first and then joining the NDA jointly, with a separate entry only as the fallback.
All eyes on the Delhi and Mumbai meetings
Sources say that under this likely arrangement, Supriya Sule could get a major role in national politics and Jayant Patil a similar one in Maharashtra, with both potentially becoming part of government. Attention now turns to the NDA's meetings in Delhi and the Mahayuti's internal political meetings in Maharashtra, after which the picture is expected to become clearer over the coming days. Given the current run of events, there is a strong possibility that Sharad Pawar's NCP could decide, directly or indirectly, to go with the NDA in the near future, though the final call will only emerge once both NCPs, the NDA leadership and the upcoming meetings have had their say.
A cabinet push for Parth Pawar
Separately, the NCP has already begun lobbying to get Parth Pawar, son of the late Ajit Pawar and Deputy CM Sunetra Pawar, a berth in the Union Cabinet.
