People waiting for an early winter chill are likely to experience unusual warmth instead, as equatorial Pacific climate patterns disrupt seasonal expectations. Strong El Nino conditions currently prevailing over the ocean are projected to keep daytime and nighttime temperatures higher than normal across vast stretches of India during November. According to monthly projections released by the weather department, maximum daytime temperatures will probably stay above normal levels across most parts of the country, barring a few localized areas located along the Himalayan foothills. Night temperatures are also likely to remain higher than usual over extensive territories, delaying the onset of typical seasonal cold.
Nighttime Patterns Across Central and Eastern Regions
Despite the broader warming trend, certain geographical pockets may experience slightly different nighttime behavior. Several parts of central and eastern India are forecast to register minimum temperatures that are near normal or even slightly below average. Consequently, nights across these specific zones could remain relatively cool, while the rest of the country grapples with above-normal warmth during both day and night hours.
Nationwide Rainfall Deficit Expected in November
Precipitation levels across India are also projected to witness a substantial drop throughout the month. Excluding parts of central, northwest, and northeast India, the vast majority of the country is likely to receive below-normal precipitation. Conversely, isolated pockets within central, northwest, and northeast regions might experience rainfall that exceeds normal thresholds for this time of the year.
Across the entire country, total precipitation in November is estimated to settle at around 77 percent of the long period average (LPA). Based on historical meteorological observations recorded between 1971 and 2020, the nationwide long period average for November stands at 29.7 millimeters. Guided by this historical benchmark, average rainfall across India during this month is expected to reach roughly 22.9 millimeters.
South Peninsular Region Facing Weak Precipitation
The southern peninsular belt is similarly anticipated to experience a noticeable deficit in rainfall during November. Weather projections place overall precipitation in this southern zone at approximately 77 percent of its respective long period average. Historical records from 1971 to 2020 define the long period average for south peninsular India in November at 118.7 millimeters. Based on the 77 percent projection, rainfall in this region is estimated to reach around 91.4 millimeters, indicating a subdued phase for local weather systems.
Equatorial Pacific Conditions and Ongoing El Nino Strength
The root driver behind these unusual atmospheric trends lies in the current oceanic dynamics observed in the equatorial Pacific. Very strong El Nino conditions are active across this tropical marine belt. Fresh assessments derived from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) alongside various international climate modeling systems suggest that these powerful El Nino conditions are likely to persist through both November and December. El Nino represents an anomalous warming of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that has far-reaching consequences for global weather patterns, though its precise local impact remains influenced by interacting regional weather factors.
